Virus death risk in urban areas four times higher

People living in larger urban areas were more than four times more likely to die with Covid-19 than those in remote locations over the past four months, according to new analysis.

The disparity emerged as it was confirmed Scotland had gone a full week without a confirmed coronavirus death and pubs, bars, restaurants and the High Street reopened to the public for the first time in four months.

Speaking at her daily press briefing, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she was nervous as the country moved into its most relaxed phase of exit from lockdown so far.

She said: “It is vital – more vital than it has been at any stage of this crisis so far – that all of us stick rigidly to the rules and guidance on how to behave in these different settings.”

The new National Records of Scotland (NRS) figures show between March 1 and June 30, there were 116.8 age-standardised deaths involving Covid-19 per 100,000 people in large urban areas compared to 26.8 per 100,000 in remote rural locations.

The gap was substantially smaller when considering the rate of deaths from all causes, where it was 1.4 times higher in large urban areas than in remote rural areas. People in the most deprived areas of the country were 2.1 times more likely to die with Covid than those living in the least deprived parts, the analysis found.

As of July 12, the overall coronavirus death toll for Scotland stood at 4,173, with 13 deaths in the week to Sunday

– a decrease of five from the previous week.

This is the 11th weekly reduction in a row, and the lowest weekly total since mid-March.

NRS figures show deaths involving Covid-19 accounted for 1% of all those registered between July 6-12, down from a peak in week 17 when Covid-19 deaths accounted for 36% of all fatalities.

More than half (54%) of all Covid deaths were in care homes in the week to July 12, up from 28% the previous week. Just over a third (38%) were in hospital, down from 67% the week before, while 8% were at home or in non-institutional settings, up from 6% the previous week.

The NRS analysis also shows the highest number of deaths involving Covid-19 of working people aged 20-64 by occupation group were among process, plant and machine operatives, where the age-standardised death rate was 25.1 per 100,000 population.

Compared to the average rate of deaths involving Covid-19 for all occupations, which was 10.2 per 100,000 population, health workers had a lower death rate (6.4).

Scotland has gone a week without a death in which coronavirus was either the direct or secondary cause. It is very far from a cause for celebration but it does suggest the incredible sacrifices we have all made since lockdown was imposed in late March have worked.

And it also suggests that we would be foolish to suddenly become complacent and simply throw away all of the good work that has brought us this far.

At the very height of the pandemic, Scotland was suffering dozens of deaths in a single day.

That the virus has been suppressed to such a level that pubs can properly reopen their doors and people can enjoy breaks away from home and the seemingly mundane pleasure of a trip to the hairdresser is a triumph.

But each time the restrictions are eased, the risk of the virus making a concerted return in our communities also increases.

Covid-19 has not been defeated, it has not magically disappeared.

In Scotland it is being collectively managed by more than five million people and everyone must continue to play their part if the upwards trajectory of recent times is to be maintained.

Scotland’s emergence from lockdown – and the necessary reawakening of an embattled economy which goes hand in hand with it – is an enormous and potentially perilous undertaking. We cannot afford to get it wrong.