The Courier & Advertiser (Perth and Perthshire Edition)
The winds of change are blowing, but which way?
The se a re undoubtedly some of the most challenging times we have lived through. The virus has upended our normal ways of living and working, and any return to normal is far off, if ever they are to return.
For some, the “new normal” is a harbinger of welcome change to a system that wasn’t working so well anyway. The aim is now to “build back better”.
Most would agree this sentiment is a worthy one but, as is always the case when we embark on significant programmes of change, the devil is in the detail. And while the virus is the cause of much devilment when it comes to getting back on track with our day-to-day lives, the detail on how we take meaningful steps forward is thin on the ground at a time when urgency is of the essence.
The most recent joblessness figures from the Office of National Statistics suggested maybe things weren’t too bad, with unemployment in Scotland remaining static at around 4.5% in the three months to the end of August.
However, most have agreed that this relatively benign state of affairs reflected a period when lockdown measures had eased and some were able to return to work. It was more like a calm before the storm.
According to the Scottish Chambers of Commerce’s latest quarterly survey of our members, confidence was still rock bottom despite some trading being allowed to occur in the period. The survey showed that most sectors were fearful of prospects in the final quarter of
the year, particularly in the hospitality and retail sectors.
In recent weeks, their fears have been proven correct as the latest rounds of restrictions were imposed in an effort to control a damaging second wave. To help mitigate the impact of closures, the Scottish Government produced a further £40 million to support businesses such as restaurants and bars that are unable to trade or whose operations were strictly limited, while the Treasury launched a new, targeted, salary support scheme for employees in hospitality and leisure.
Both were welcome. Yet despite £400 billion being thrown at the economy since the start of the pandemic, there are fears that we will yet face a devastating loss of jobs over the winter.
Perhaps it is impossible to save all the jobs, but if this is the case efforts must be redoubled to ensure those who have lost their jobs are able to seek opportunities where employers are hiring, or retrain for the jobs that will exist once the effects of the pandemic recede.
To this end we have seen many promising starts in terms of funding and training. However, there
is still a worrying lack of detail that is useful to either employees or employers when it comes to accessing this.
Some is just being released in initial stages. The first phase of the Scottish Government’s £25m transition training fund has been launched through Skills Development Scotland, which is expected to support 6,000 people through the tough winter months. The programme, which aims to help 10,000 people move into jobs with potential for future growth, is laudable but in terms of the challenges the economy now faces means
it amounts to a drop in the bucket.
Much has been said about the potential for “green jobs” to enable the country’s workforce to build the economy back, as well as meet targets on cutting environmental carbon emissions. Again, the £100m pledged by the Scottish Government and the £160m committed recently by Westminster for port upgrades to support work in the offshore wind industry lacks detail.
If it is industry that will supply these green jobs – which it must – then government must work more closely with us to identify the number of jobs, skills them.
The government wish list must become a blueprint so those who will be losing or have lost their jobs have a clear path towards reskilling.
The blueprint should also allow support for employers who have to let people go, to retain people while they retrain – possibly while paid – before they are forced to hit the Job Centre.
In a recent article, Ronnie MacDonald, professor in macroeconomics and international finance in the Adam Smith Business School at Glasgow University, highlighted fears the UK is heading towards a catastrophic 16% unemployment rate. He warned we face a “skills mismatch” comparable to the 1980s recession, where people who are likely to start swelling the ranks of the jobless are likely to be from the hospitality and the retail sector.
The gap between their current skills and those required by green jobs or other areas set for growth needs to be bridged.
To complicate efforts, it is not just the sharp shock of Covid-19 we must worry about. Even before the virus, Western nations faced a real risk that the rise of “globotics” – a mix of globalisation and robotics – was set to radically transform the world of work for everyone at all skills levels, from fruit pickers to lawyers.
Governments and businesses need to focus on the future because the future is now. types of required jobs, to and fulfil