Salmond inquiry may hurt Indyref2

The fallout from the Alex Salmond inquiry could cause “s ign i f icant damage” to the SNP as it pushes for a new Scottish independence referendum, a leading polling expert has warned.

Speaking on DC Thomson Me d i a ’ s The Stooshie podcast, Strathclyde University’s Professor Sir John Curtice said current data on the issue suggests Nicola Sturgeon is now more popular than Alex Salmond in the eyes of nationalist voters.

Ho w e v e r, Sir John suggested the lingering impact of the case – and its effect on the SNP as it builds an argument for a new independence ballot – could be determined by what evidence the first minister and her predecessor present to the committee.

He said: “It’s terribly early days but we shouldn’t underestimate the fact that at the very moment when the prospects of the nationalist movement in Scotland being able to win a referendum have never looked better, there is this serious internal personality row, which might yet break out in such a way that causes the SNP significant damage.”

The polling expert said the coronavirus pandemic had helped to shield some of the issues from public awareness but that much of what happens next could rest on what claims Alex Salmond sets out to the committee.

“Presumably the allegation will be that there was a conspiracy to bring him down and he will want to give the impression that Nicola Sturgeon was party to that conspiracy,” Sir John said.

“So the question will be whether there was a conspiracy, rather than just a few cock-ups, and whether Nicola Sturgeon was party conspiracy.

“It’s on that, I think, that things will turn.

“T he limited polling we’ve got on this suggests that maybe, at the moment at least, Nicola Sturgeon’s star shines much more brightly than Alex Salmond’s in the eyes of nationalist voters, let alone anybody else.”

In a podcast appearance where he also discussed the result of this week’s US election, Sir John said the Salmond inquiry was one of the few dangers hanging over the SNP as it attempts to win a majority at next year’s Scottish Parliament election.

A paper published this week, which Sir John coauthored, sets out how the UK Government’s pursuit of Brexit undermined confidence in the union in Scotland and has led to a swell in support for independence since 2016.

The report, published by to that whatscotlandthinks. org and the Scottish Centre for Social Research, found that all of the growth in suppo r t fo r independence prior to coronavirus occurred among those with positive views about EU membership.

Sir John said the impact of the Brexit vote “took a while to kick through” but pushed up support for independence to around 50% before the coronavirus pandemic hit.

“Whatever happens with the pandemic, Brexit is going to be with us in any referendum that takes place in the relatively immediate future,” he said.

“The unionist side is going to have to tackle head-on the consequences of Brexit as perceived by Scottish voters.”

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DAMAGE: Sir John Curtice warned of the “internal personality row” in the SNP. Picture by Mhairi Edwards.