The Courier & Advertiser (Perth and Perthshire Edition)
‘All over for Salmond’
EXCLUSIVE: Courier poll shows former first minister’s Alba Party way behind in election battle
Alex Salmond’s hopes of securing a “supermajority” for independence at May’s election look doomed, according to an exclusive new poll by The Courier.
The first poll since the former first minister announced his return to politics makes grim reading for his new Alba Party, with only 3% of Scots saying they would offer their support at the ballot box. More than 1,000 Scottish residents were surveyed for the poll over March 29 and March 30.
The results put the SNP ahead in both constituency and list votes, on 49% and 37%, respectively, while the Tories sit on 21% and 18%, Labour 20% and 19%, the Liberal Democrats on 9% and 8% and the Greens on 11%.
The poll also returned some eyebrow-raising results for Mr Salmond himself, with 71% of Scots saying they viewed the former SNP boss unfavourably – by far the worst result for any mainstream political leader in the UK.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice, pictured right, speaking on the back of the survey, told us: “It looks as though it’s all over for Salmond.”
Alex Salmond’s hopes of returning to frontline politics and securing a “supermajority” for independence at May’s Holyrood election are doomed, shock new Alba Party polling has suggested.
The Survation poll, carried out exclusively for DC Thomson, found the former first minister’s proindependence party, Alba Party, to be seriously lagging behind the other major parties – with only 3% of Scots saying they would offer support at the ballot box.
The poll also returned some eyebrow-raising results for Mr Salmond himself, with 71% of Scots saying they viewed the former SNP boss unfavourably – by far the worst result for any mainstream political leader in the UK.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice, speaking on the back of the survey, said “it looks as though it’s all over for Salmond”.
More than half of Scots polled also held the view that Mr Salmond, right, was “hindering the cause for Scottish independence”, compared with only 17% who said his contribution was helping the independence movement.
More than 1,000 Scottish residents were surveyed for the poll over March 29 and 30. The results put the SNP ahead in both constituency and list votes, on 49% and 37%, respectively, while the Tories sit on 21% and 18%, Labour 20% and 19%, the Liberal Democrats on 9% and 8%, the Greens on 11% in the list and the Alba Party trailing on 3%.
Polling experts have said the figures translate to a narrow majority for the SNP of 66 MSPs, with Labour in second on 24, Tories on 21, Greens on 11 and Lib Dems on 7.
In terms of individual favourability, Nicola Sturgeon leads the pack with 50% of Scots having a favourable view of the first minister.
In contrast, only 17% of people have a favourable view of Scottish
Tory leader Douglas
Ross, and
22% have a positive view of Scottish
Labour leader Anas Sarwar.
The standout result, however, is for Mr Salmond, who only racks up 10% favourability – with 71% having a negative view of the former SNP leader.
The closest figure to Mr Salmond in terms of unpopularity is Boris Johnson, who is viewed unfavourably by 56% of Scots.
Polling guru Sir John said: “The headline is that it looks as though it’s all over for Salmond, though he might just get a seat in the north-east himself.
“But this is not what he needs if he is going to get his campaign to take off.
“If other polls come out over the weekend with similar numbers then he ain’t going to get broadcast coverage because the broadcasters will be able to say ‘you’re
not a significant player in this election’.”
Sir John said Mr Salmond is failing to cut through among younger SNP voters. “Among SNP 2019 voters, Sturgeon has 87% favourability, Salmond 12%. He’s not convincing them, he’s not getting his argument across,” he said.
Mr Salmond aside, Sir John said the poll is also “bad news for the union”.
He said: “Point one to note is that the immediate fallout from the Hamilton inquiry, the parliamentary inquiry and Salmond’s intervention is basically zero, because support for independence is at 50/50, which is what it’s been at for a while.
“Support for the SNP is also down by a statistically insignificant amount. On these numbers the SNP would just get a majority.
“So the attempts to inflict serious damage on the SNP and the independence movement through trying to nail Sturgeon over the inquiry has failed.”
Scotland’s unionist parties remained resolute, however, with a Scottish Tory spokesman saying: “Only the Scottish Conservatives have the strength to stop an SNP majority, stop their push for an independence referendum and get the focus back on rebuilding Scotland and recovering from the pandemic.”
On Mr Salmond’s polling, a Tory source added:
“Scotland is rightly rejecting Alex Salmond’s toxic new nationalist party.”
A Scottish Labour source said: “With weeks to go there is still everything to play for in this race.
“But it’s comforting to see early signs that Scottish voters are ready to end the circus we’ve had to live through, because Scotland deserves better.”
SNP depute leader Keith Brown said the polls demonstrated Ms Sturgeon is “the only credible candidate”, and added: “By giving both votes to the SNP we can re-elect Nicola Sturgeon and put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands.”