The Courier & Advertiser (Perth and Perthshire Edition)
How seats are shaping up in Courier Country
Here we take a look at how the election fight is set to pan out across Dundee, Fife, Angus and Perth, using exclusive figures supplied to us by Survation in one of Scotland’s largest-ever polling exercises.
In Dundee City East (the constituency known as Dundee East until 2011) the SNP’s Shona Robison has only lost one election – the inaugural vote in 1999, which went to Labour.
In Dundee City West (formerly Dundee West) Joe FitzPatrick gained the seat for the nationalists in 2007, holding since.
Our polling shows neither incumbent is likely to lose. Around 60% of voters in Dundee think the Scottish Government has handled the pandemic well, our figures suggest
Only 20% of voters in Dundee would consider voting for another party, while 39% of Dundonians feel the SNP “represents people like them”.
For Labour, that figure stands at 14% and the Conservatives 12%.
In Dundee, 59% of people asked said they would use their first, constituency, vote for the SNP. Only in Angus is support for the party stronger, which returned a 69% result.
But politics is as much about people as it is polling and percentages.
Surprises should still be expected between now and May 6, and even those in safe seats can expect a few barbs sent their way – Mr FitzPatrick over his time as minister for public health in the Scottish Government, with responsibility for tackling the drugs crisis that has a vice-like grip in Dundee; Ms Robison over her spell as health secretary.
According to our polling, the closest battle for constituency seats will be in Perthshire.
John Swinney, deputy first minister and education secretary, will contest again the Perthshire North seat.
He has seen off a vote of no confidence not once but twice, in both his position as deputy first minister and head of education.
In 2011 he won with more than 48% of the vote, with closest contender Murdo Fraser enjoying a 12.5% swing in his favour.
For Mr Fraser to stand a chance of winning the constituency outright (he is almost guaranteed a seat, as top of the Tories’ regional list for Mid Scotland and Fife), Labour and Lib Dem votes – few and far between in the seat – will need to go in his favour.
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire will be contested for the first time without Roseanna Cunningham, who retires.
Newcomer Jim Fairlie, whose father Jim was an SNP national executive member in the 1970s, will compete for the party.
Conservative Liz Smith will hope to take votes from Labour and the Lib Dems to overturn the SNP majority and, as second on the Conservative list, will still likely win a seat in May regardless.
Angus was a single constituency until 2011, and since 1999 has returned SNP members to the Scottish Parliament.
The SNP has held the North seat since its creation in 2011.
Incumbent Mairi Gougeon (previously Evans) currently holds the position of minister for public health (without the drugs portfolio) in Nicola Sturgeon’s government.
In the South, Graeme Dey has held the seat since 2011, following the constituency split.
Mr Dey, the minister for parliamentary business responsible (among other things) for setting the election coronavirus campaign rules, was uncovered by us to have flouted his own rules.
Polling suggests the SNP will hold the constituency seats, although the Conservatives have increased their vote share in each – by 11% in the North and more than 15% in the South in 2016.
While nowhere near as exciting to watch as its Westminster cousin in recent years, North East
Fife will be watched closely as ever this May.
Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie will defend the constituency, having enjoyed a more than 15% increase in party vote share in 2016.
The Cowdenbeath constituency will see another tussle between Labour’s Alex Rowley and the incumbent, Annabelle Ewing (daughter of SNP grandee Winnie).
Both Dunfermline and Kirkcaldy SNP incumbents, Shirley-Anne Somerville and David Torrance, faced internal battles ahead of this year’s election.
Each managed to comfortably beat their party rivals earlier this year to secure their place on each constituency ballot.
Ms Somerville retained a majority of more than 4,500 in 2016.
David Torrance and Labour’s Claire Baker will again compete for the Kirkcaldy seat.
Mr Torrance had a majority of fewer than 200 in the 2011 election, which increased to a comfortable 7,395 in 2016.
The SNP has as retained
Mid Scotland and Fife since 2011, first under former Presiding Officer of the Scottish Parliament Tricia Marwick and then Jenny Gilruth.
Ms Gilruth retained almost 55% of the vote in 2016, with a majority of more than 8,200.
According to polls, the SNP are more likely to receive a list vote from voters in Dundee and Angus.
The Tories were secondmost likely to be given a regional vote in Angus, while Dundee swings still towards Labour.
Perth and Fife make up the Mid Scotland and Fife regional area.
In Perth, the regional vote is neck and neck between the Tories and the SNP.
As such, if the nationalists are set to win in each constituency, given their place on the party list both Murdo Fraser and Liz Smith will realistically return to Holyrood.
Similarly, Labour’s top list candidate, Michael Marra, should be returned, along with the Conservatives’ Liam Kerr.