No political earthquake, but big changes ahead

The battle over Indyref2 provides Anas Sarwar with both a challenge and an opportunity

After two days of agonising counting, we finally have a result.

There was no political earthquake. Going by the numbers of seats that changed party, you could be forgiven for thinking that not much has changed.

But this was a historic election, held in the most unusual of times, and the results point to big changes ahead.

Turnout for a Holyrood election was a record high – proving that Scots won’t let a wee thing like a global pandemic stop us having our say.

We also set a new record, with the highest number of women ever elected to the Scottish Parliament, including – for the first time – women of colour.

Pam Duncan-glancy is the first MSP that is a permanent wheelchair user.

We have our most diverse and representative parliament ever. Our new MSPS certainly have their work cut out for them.

Scotland’s recovery from the pandemic will be first on the agenda when the new term of parliament begins.

The constitutional question, as ever, looms large in the background.

Independence was the sole focus of the Scottish Conservatives’ campaign, because it suited them to frame their offer as being the only party that could stop Indyref2.

Pro-unionist tactical voting was successful in denying the SNP a few of their top target seats, but the SNP still won.

Nicola Sturgeon says that she intends to keep the promise she made during the election campaign.

She has pledged that Scotland’s recovery from Covid will be her main focus and said she won’t pursue an independence referendum until we’re out the other side.

Despite the result, it looks like Boris Johnson will be unwilling to budge.

At Holyrood there is a pro-independence majority of MSPS, so you would expect any future legislation for a second referendum to win the Scottish Parliament’s approval.

But without Boris Johnson’s permission, in the form of a Section 30 order, that’s as far as it would go.

So what then?

We face the very real possibility that the UK Government could take the Scottish Government to court to prove that holding Indyref2 is outwith the competence of the Scottish Parliament.

That would be a remarkable development, but it’s not a far-fetched prospect. Though I suspect both sides will be hoping it doesn’t come to that.

The upcoming battle over Indyref2 provides Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar with both a challenge and an opportunity.

Scottish Labour are back in third place at Holyrood.

The party doesn’t fare well in a country split 50/50 on the Union.

Scottish Labour is not the natural home for unionists and the party’s traditional voters have long left for the SNP.

His best chance of ever becoming first minister is to graciously accept the mandate for Indyref2 and campaign against independence – all while secretly hoping that Yes wins the day.

His plea of “Let’s move on, I want to represent both Yes and No’’ was a warm and fuzzy campaign soundbite but, as an electoral strategy, it was always doomed to fail.

They say a week is a long time in politics. Over the next five years of this new Scottish parliamentary term, anything could happen.

Newly-elected Scottish Labour MSP Pam Duncan-glancy.