A challenge that could determine the nature of the United Kingdom

Parties that win elections are expected to deliver on the commitments made in campaigns and manifestos.

The announcement yesterday by the first minister of her intention to hold a referendum in October next year was therefore unsurprising.

During last year’s Scottish parliamentary election Nicola Sturgeon committed to holding an independence referendum in the first half of this parliamentary session and is delivering on that commitment.

The SNP and the Greens both went into that election promising to deliver an independence referendum and, between them, won a majority.

Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives, who all went into the election saying that a vote for their parties was a vote against a referendum, lost.

In winning the election the SNP won a bigger share of the vote than any UK Government in recent times, winning 48% of the constituency vote and 85% of the constituency seats.

Because of the proportionate nature of Holyrood, they ended up with 64 out of 129 seats and along with the eight seats won by the Greens, a clear majority.

This was well clear of the “landslide” Tory election win in 2019 when Boris Johnson’s party won 43.6% of the vote and 56% of the seats or even Tony Blair’s “seismic” win in 1997 with 45% of the vote and 64% of the seats.

Away from Holyrood the SNP have similarly dominated the past three Westminster elections.

The first minister knows she was elected to deliver independence.

Those who agree with her like that, those who disagree with her don’t.

Nicola Sturgeon is therefore pitting her government’s electoral mandate against that of a Conservative government that has not won an election in Scotland since the 1950s and whose leader is one of the least popular prime ministers, in terms of Scottish public opinion, ever to hold that office.

Outside the EU, with a growing cost-of-living crisis, an economy that’s underperforming and a prime minister unafraid of breaking international law, the UK is changing rapidly, with consequences for us all.

The first minister is seeking to give Scots a choice over their future.

The reaction of the UK to this bold move will be important to all of our futures as well as telling us something of the nature of the UK and whether it remains a voluntary union of nations.

“The UK is changing rapidly, with consequences for us all. The first minister is seeking to give Scots a choice over their future