The Daily Telegraph - Saturday
Sunak throws red meat to Right as challenge looms
PM is showing his true colours as much to colleagues as to voters amid leadership talk
ON Tuesday night, over plates of grilled asparagus followed by roasted deer leg, Rishi Sunak and Polish prime minister Donald Tusk talked of a surprise subject of joint admiration.
That Rishi Sunak, the Tory leader, holds Margaret Thatcher in high regard is to be expected. Less so Mr Tusk, the one-time poster boy for Brussels’s Brexit resistance during departure talks.
Yet behind closed doors in the Polish leader’s residency the story was told of how Mr Tusk once gathered a huge crowd to greet the Iron Lady at Gdańsk shipyard when she visited in 1988.
At the time, Mr Tusk was a student leader for a trade union and Mrs Thatcher, the first ever British prime minister to make an official trip to Poland, an icon of democracy for those behind the Iron Curtain. “It was a rock star welcome,” Mr Sunak and his inner circle were told over dinner.
To cement the bond, Mr Tusk was presented with a photograph of Mrs T reaching for vegetables at a Polish market from that visit, an embodiment of the merits of capitalism.
The Prime Minister’s surprise uplift in defence spending, announced with a flourish during a mid-week visit to Poland and Germany, has lifted the mood in Downing Street.
The increase to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030 had been months in the making, and – those around Mr Sunak argue – entirely driven by British national interest. But it completed a hat trick of major policy moves in areas that the Tory Right, the section of the party which holds the biggest political risk to the Prime Minister, has been demanding action.
In the space of five days Mr Sunak unveiled a “moral mission” to reform welfare to get people working, celebrated the passing of the Rwanda Bill and unveiled his defence boost.
“This is very authentically the PM,” said a Downing Street insider. “He is really Right-wing on these issues.” It is a message being projected at Tory colleagues as well as the public.
Showing off his inner Thatcher could help Mr Sunak ride out whatever is coming after Thursday, when voters go to the polls to pick councillors, mayors, and police and crime commissioners.
Both friends and foes of the PM have had the local elections on May 2 ringed for months as the moment of maximum danger for his party. leadership before the general election.
Forecasters estimate as many half of the Tory council seats up this cycle – about 500 – could be lost.
Another by-election defeat is likely in Blackpool South.
And then there are the two all important Conservative-held mayoral races, with Andy Street in the West Midlands and Lord Houchen in Tees Valley seeking to defy the polls.
If the centrist Mr Street is ousted in
Middle England and Lord Houchen, an embodiment of Boris Johnson’s Red Wall coalition, also loses then the pressure on Mr Sunak to prove his electability will ratchet up.
The argument that Cabinet ministers being lined up for results night shows will deploy is that the last time these seats were voted on in 2021 the Tories were enjoying a Covid vaccine polls bounce.
Critics of Sunak have been working up their own “grid” of activity for the days after the locals, with some accepting this is their last shot at a leadership switch before the general election.
Mr Sunak’s low approval ratings will be one target. “At this point this bloke could have cured cancer and the public would hate him for not doing it sooner,” said a rebel source.
“MPs will know that unless something dramatically changes they will be taking up their new roles as account directors at mid-level public affairs firms by Christmas.”
The frustration from a group of Tory MPs on the Right and their advisers is not in doubt. What remains unclear is whether they will have the numbers to do anything about it.
It takes 52 Tory MPs to submit a no confidence letter to the 1922 Committee to trigger a yes/no vote in Mr Sunak’s leadership. Despite all the chatter, just two have publicly called for him to go, the Boris-backers Dame Andrea Jenkyns and Sir Simon Clarke.
Claims that a “whipping operation” is under way among rebels and that fresh letters will be submitted after the locals abound, with little proof to be independently verified.
In the past, the Right’s pronouncements about having the numbers have proved illusory, such as forcing changes to the Rwanda Bill, which ultimately passed without a single Tory MP voting against it. “Who are they? How many of them are there? I think he’ll be fine,” said one government adviser about the rebels.
The tensions have fused with speculation that Number 10 could yet announce the general election for June or July, rather than for October or November.
Outsiders such as Nadine Dorries, the former Tory MP, and Labour shadow ministers have been claiming that on Monday Mr Sunak could announce the vote to pre-empt local election losses.
One senior
Downing Street figure dubbed the idea “bull----”, saying Mr Sunak is due to be on a local visit away from Westminster that day and is spending the weekend with family at Chequers.
In the last week Mr Sunak has been shoring up his position with Tory MPs, holding a drinks reception the night of Rwanda Bill voting and meeting some of his critics for face-to-face talks.
Perhaps that is underscored by who Mr Sunak felt needed to be briefed on his tightly held decision to spend an extra £75 billion on defence between now and 2030. As he was driven to the plane for his flight to Poland on Tuesday morning, he called the President Volodymyr Zelensky to share the news of extra military aid.
Ben Wallace, James Heappey and Mark Francois were also informed by their leader before the news broke.
All three went public praising the package. Other Conservatives did so too, turning their collective fire on Labour who are yet to match the 2.5 per cent by 2030 pledge.
“The unity!” enthused a No 10 insider. This is what the Tory election strategists dream about: a party finally calling time on its infighting and taking aim at their Opposition instead.
But come this time next week, the guns will once again be turned inwards. Survive to June and Mr Sunak will almost certainly lead the Tories into the general election. For those Tory rebels, muttering their frustrations behind a cloak of anonymity for months, it is the moment of truth.