Four strong sides make these two games hard to call
Scotland, Wales, Ireland and France can all pose a threat but have their proven weaknesses too
There is so much to like about Scotland during the past 12 months.
The desire to play, to understand their strengths, use the grey cells to create opportunities. They look fit, and have players at the top of their game. Confidence is building.
They will always struggle with squad size and depth. They just do not have enough players or professional teams. Player control, with lads plying their trade in different countries, can add difficulty. The average Scotsman is not the gargantuan monster some sides seem to produce.
For Scotland, for so long, we have wondered where their tries will come from. Now we wonder if any team can stop Stuart Hogg from scoring. The team can all pass and catch, and while that may sound rather obvious, they can now do it under intense physical pressure. The work done within their club sides and away on international training camps has been long and arduous. When you are one of the smaller teams, everyone has to be able to handle and be comfortable on the ball; everyone has to be prepared to carry and shift the point of contact.
Defensively they have taken leaps forward. Ireland were beaten at Murrayfield on the opening day because they made errors, creaking under the pressure Scotland created.
Scotland now have strong units spread around the field. The Gray brothers in the second row are dynamic ball-handlers who can match anyone tackle for tackle. The back three have pace, vision, trust and confidence to take anyone on. The midfield combines the willingness-to-play of Finn Russell with an absolute rock of a centre in Alex Dunbar. opening games, which cost them the win in Cardiff and the bonus point in Rome. The set-piece has wobbled in both games so far. Criminally they have failed to keep the scoreboard ticking over, and have to reassess their desire for seven-point gambles. Perhaps they were feeling the pressure due to the demands of the public and the media.
Wales have been very good in their opening two games but expectation levels are so high the powerful Welsh support can often be slow to acknowledge quality when beaten. That can dampen a team’s confidence.
Warburton has been brilliant at six; Justin Tipuric is omnipresent on the field; Ross Moriarty can knock dents in any wall; and Taulupe Faletau is returning to fitness. Jake Ball, Scott Williams, Liam Williams and Ken Owens are men who have often had to play “best supporting actors” to the stars. But they have really shown their class over the last 160 minutes. Real backbone, low error count, hard carries.
Liam Williams can be as dangerous for Wales as Stuart Hogg is for Scotland, and he is developing a reputation as a man who can find his way into gaps, through holes, past men, and over try lines.
Wales were as good as they have been in recent memory against England.
The hype will be about “having to win” against Scotland but I disagree.
Performance is everything against an excellent Scottish team, and being away from home gives them a nice under-dog status.