Four teams, two places – how the race for Europe is shaping up
With Chelsea having guaranteed Champions League qualification and Spurs certain to join them, Telegraph writers run the rule over the quartet of contenders vying for the remaining two slots and assess how much is at stake in the run-in
Liverpool 3rd 69pts
Sunday Southampton (h) May 14 West Ham (a) May 21 Middlesbrough (h) Average position of remaining opponents 14th Number of current injuries 4
Run-in
Liverpool have not scored against Southampton in three games this season. Trips to West Ham usually coincide with Andy Carroll’s first game and goal in months and a subsequent campaign to get him an England call-up. But if Liverpool do not beat Middlesbrough at Anfield on the final day of the season they do not deserve to play in the Champions League.
Current mood
Erratic. Weirdly, they seem calmer on the road than when they play at Anfield. They have dug out wins at tough venues, but suffered momentary paralysis in front of their own anxious supporters against Crystal Palace. The win at Watford on Monday has restored hope, but Liverpool’s fan base remains psychologically scarred, having narrowly missed out on so many targets in recent seasons.
What is holding them back?
Injuries. To lose Sadio Mané at such a key stage was dreadful luck. So too when Philippe Coutinho and Adam Lallana were unavailable, while captain Jordan Henderson has missed most of the season. A full-strength Liverpool would have gone closer to winning the title. Now they are dragging themselves to the finish line.
The one man key to their hopes is...
Adam Lallana (left). Coutinho is the obvious choice, but Lallana transforms how Liverpool play. He is the trigger for the highpressing game, forcing defenders into mistakes. That allows Coutinho and Roberto Firmino to become more penetrative. If Jürgen Klopp can get Lallana, Coutinho and Firmino on the pitch again it is a game-changer.
The cost of missing out would be...
Psychologically and financially as traumatic as losing last season’s Europa League final. Liverpool deserve to be where they are with three games to go. It would have been easier but for a touch of misfortune and a little bit of self-destruction. The club need to restore their place among the elite. It remains to be seen if they can attract players of Virgil van Dijk’s calibre even if they finish in the top four. They will have no chance if they do not. Chris Bascombe
Man City 4th 66pts
Saturday Crystal Palace (h) May 13 Leicester (h) May 16 West Brom (h) May 21 Watford (a) Average position of remaining opponents 14th Number of injuries 3
Run-in
With three games remaining at the Etihad Stadium, the fixture list looks generous for Pep Guardiola. But Palace arrive this weekend still needing a win to guarantee safety, and they have the ammunition to cause City problems. Leicester and West Brom might already be in holiday mode. City should be confident of finishing third.
Current mood
Underwhelmed by a season which promised so much but can now deliver no more than a par score. If City do not qualify for the Champions League it would represent an extraordinary failure. Nobody of sound mind believes Manuel Pellegrini is a better coach than Guardiola, but plenty are whispering that not much has improved at the club yet.
What is holding them back?
Guardiola has argued that the injury to new signing Gabriel Jesus was significant, but such complaints sound hollow when you have Sergio Agüero. The reality is that this has been a transitional year, with Guardiola bringing in a new style. His players are still trying to adjust, and this has bred inconsistency. There is view that life at City is more complicated than it needs to be.
The one man key to their hopes is…
Vincent Kompany (left). City always look like they will score, and when Kompany is fit they have the solidity they need in defence. Without him, despite a huge outlay on defenders, their vulnerability is evident. Guardiola may suggest Jesus’s return is pivotal, but they have given away too many daft goals. If Kompany plays for the rest of the season they will be fine.
The cost of missing out would be...
A major inquest and broad debate between those who regard any criticism of Guardiola as akin to blasphemy and others who believe – despite his undisputed greatness as a coach – that he and his admirers were condescending to ignore the peculiar demands of English football. It may not be better, or higher quality, but it is very different to Spain and Germany. Ignoring that, and failing to adjust, smacks of tactical arrogance. Chris Bascombe
Man Utd 5th 65pts
Sunday Arsenal (a) May 14 Tottenham (a) May 17 Southampton (a) May 21 Crystal Palace (h) Ave position of opponents
8th Number of injuries 6
Run-in
The toughest of those chasing fourth; they have a trip to Arsenal followed by Tottenham away. United will probably need four points from those two games. On the flip side, Jose Mourinho is never better than when defying expectations. United may prefer this challenge to routine home games.
Current mood
Torn between focusing on domestic or European matters. Their (possible) three remaining games in the Europa League look less daunting than the four in the Premier League. Win the Europa League and they will be in the Champions League, enabling them to settle for fifth or sixth. Mourinho will want both routes secured, but they will be thankful for the added security.
What is holding them back?
Injuries and fixture congestion. Mourinho might have made more of this than necessary. For the best part of 30 years the demands of fighting on all fronts proved no obstacle to Old Trafford dominance, but he misses no chance to create a siege mentality. The injury to Zlatan Ibrahimovic was bad luck, however.
The one man key to their hopes is…
Marcus Rashford (left). With Ibrahimovic out, scoring is United’s problem. Rashford now has a more central role and is demonstrating his potential in flashes. His maturity belies his age, but he must grow up even more swiftly if he is going to lead the line in a European semi-final and final – as well as at the Emirates and White Hart Lane.
The cost of missing out would be...
A second consecutive season without Champions League football is inconceivable at Old Trafford. Mourinho believes he belongs on that stage, as do his most expensive signings. He will offer several mitigating circumstances should his side fail. Many will buy into those, but it will add to the pressure next season. For him to miss out once, narrowly, would be excusable, but it would make qualification a minimum requirement in a year’s time. Chris Bascombe
Arsenal 6th 60pts
Sunday Man Utd (h) May 10 Southampton (a) May 13 Stoke (a) May 16 Sunderland (h) May 21 Everton (h) Ave position of opponents
11th Number of injuries 3
Run-in
Tricky. Away fixtures at Stoke and Southampton are testing, even if the opponents are in that comfortable mid-table pack. Beating relegated Sunderland at home should be a formality but dropped points feel likely against both Everton and Manchester United.
Current mood
Deeply uncertain and lacking in confidence. From putting together a 19-match unbeaten run before Christmas, they have lost half of their past 16 games and seem desperate for the season to end.
What is holding them back?
The failure to resolve uncertainty over key players and the manager has had a gradually corrosive effect. Arsène Wenger’s situation has created an excuse for misfiring players, and Alexis Sánchez and Mesut Özil’s performances have dipped badly.
The one man key to their hopes is...
Alexis Sánchez (left). He has scored 19 league goals this season and is the best hope to inspire them to an increasingly unlikely positive finish. Failing that, Danny Welbeck, Olivier Giroud or Theo Walcott must step up.
The cost of missing out would be...
A hit of £20 million to £30 million, but that is less essential now given the enhanced domestic television income. It makes attracting players the wider issue, although other big clubs have shown in recent seasons that not playing in the Champions League can be a blessing domestically. Arsenal’s squad have repeatedly failed to maintain a push across all competitions, particularly when they have so consistently made the knockout phase of the Champions League. Missing out would also lessen the possibility of Wenger staying. The consistency of the club’s participation has been one of the main arguments for keeping him. and calls for him to leave would grow even noisier. Jeremy Wilson