England need Morgan to enjoy the luck of his homeland

off 50 overs, and 25 overs remain after rain, the side batting second will have only five wickets, for example, to chase down 180. Meanwhile, any country in this tournament, if batting second after rain, can beat another.

England might well have been the outright favourites – until Monday morning, when they lost their first six wickets at Lord’s in five overs. It was a dead-rubber game, yes; England had won six of their last seven ODI series; and they played their reserve bowling attack. Yet healthy organisms have an ability to adapt and survive.

England’s first three batsmen – Jason Roy, Joe Root and Eoin Morgan – were bowled out by perfect swinging deliveries when the overhead conditions were ideal for South Africa. But nobody apart from Jonny Bairstow, who was only playing to rest Ben Stokes, adapted. Alex Hales, who had watched those first three wickets go down, played exactly the shot that Kagiso Rabada and his slips wanted him to, as did Jos Buttler and Adil Rashid, although they may have some excuse in that they bat down the order in a sheltered age where white balls usually do not swing for more than five minutes.

England could yet win this tournament, but it is less likely now than it was before the Lord’s ODI against South Africa that they will go through it unbeaten: their batting, or rather their hitting, in earlyseason English conditions, is too vulnerable. On a humid morning at Edgbaston, a swinging ground, England could face a similar threat from Australia. So could India if they have to bat first against Pakistan. For the first time West Indies will be absent from a global tournament.

England might well have been outright favourites – until Monday morning

For anyone who saw them when world champions, it is almost painful to say that, based on their showing against England in March, they will not be missed. Instead they will be playing against Afghanistan, where cricket did not exist when West Indies won the Champions Trophy in 2004, let alone in the 1980s. Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, have inherited some of the spirit and uncoached flair West Indies had. Bangladesh have become excellent in ODIS at home, not least because the 50-over format has always been their forte at club level. They have yet to master conditions abroad, however: they were 22 for six against India in their warm-up match on Tuesday.

The one quality England lack is experience of getting over the line on major occasions, whether in knock-out tournaments or even the final of a tri-series. If they fail again, the England and Wales Cricket Board will have to analyse whether the historic absence of a domestic under-19 competition is a cause, because knockout games are not part of the formative experience of English cricketers. Otherwise, England have prepared so well in the two years since they were knocked out of the 2015 World Cup by Bangladesh that, as hosts, they stand as good a chance as anyone.

Morgan, after putting the brightest gloss on England’s collapse at Lord’s, appears to be as assured as any captain could be at this stage. He is said to be happiest when, as the son of a groundsman in north Dublin, he sits astride a tractor and mows an outfield. For the next fortnight or so England’s captain has to drive his team no less calmly, bringing with him the legendary luck of

his native land.