A plus side to letting no-hopers contest the Derby
Diore Lia will not produce a 1,000-1 fairy tale – but at least will show how good the rest really are, writes
Filly’s owner has become an easy target. No wonder he is cocking a snook at them by running
Iask this as a rhetorical question rather than seeking an answer but, in the Olympics, why do they not run an ordinary person – man or woman off the street, distinctly average in athletic ability – in each event to show just how much better the world’s elite actually are?
We know Usain Bolt is a couple of yards quicker than his nearest rival but how much quicker is he than us? Would we be 30, 40 or 50 metres down the track, or still in the blocks as he is finishing?
And that, as far as I can see, is the only plus side to the presence of Diore Lia, a 1,000-1 shot, in tomorrow’s Investec Derby – perspective; as a measure of how much better the best threeyear-old thoroughbreds of this year’s Classic generation are, compared to one which is distinctly average. How many open-top double-decker buses will she be behind the winner?
I am not denying her owner-breeder, Richard Aylward, his right to run the filly. He has coughed up £7,860 in staged entry fees to run her and, unlike the Grand National, which is a handicap, no minimum standard is required for the Derby. Offering to run her for charity is a bit of a red herring because, to earn a slice of the £1.625million on offer, she must finish in the first six – which is not going to happen.
On Wednesday, her saga took another turn when the British Horseracing Authority stepped in to stop trainer John Jenkins’s inexperienced apprentice Gina Mangan (one winner – at Roscommon in 2009) from riding her, and now the more experienced apprentice, Paddy Pilley (34 winners from 500 rides), is in the seat, which gets hotter by the second.
It is not the first time a complete no-hoper has run in the Derby, and I do have some sympathy for Aylward. Plenty of bigger owners run inappropriate horses in the wrong races, and there will almost be as many social runners at Royal Ascot in three weeks as there are horses with genuine chances but, not part of racing’s establishment, he has become an easy target for criticism. No wonder he is cocking a snook at them by running.
Unless the public are feeling benevolent towards the bookmaking industry – their PR departments were busy reminding punters about Leicester City’s Premiership win last season – Diore Lia will be sent off at 500-1.
Five horses have started at double those odds, 1,000-1, in 237 years. All finished tailed off. The only sniff of hope that the bookmakers and I have got this hopelessly wrong is Terimon, who was second to Nashwan in 1989 at 500-1.
However, there is one bet which is worse value than backing Diore Lia to win at 500-1, which is backing her at 1-4 to finish last. Tailedoff? Yes. But not necessarily last. Behind the first half-dozen in the Derby, the field invariably finish more strung out than they do in a National nowadays as the non-stayers, spent pace-makers, the not-half-as-good-as-wethought and lame coast home and, on breeding, at least she can be expected to be giving her best (whatever that is) at the finish.
It is in our British nature to want an underdog to do well, and the rags-to-riches outsider remains sport’s greatest story. But if you must throw away a fiver each-way on tomorrow’s Derby, waste it instead on John Gosden’s Pealer at 200-1.
It has no earthly chance on form, and if I tipped it on the racing page, the men in white coats would take me away. But, in my eyes, he could have beaten Cracksman in an Epsom gallop last week. Stranger things have happened but, I am afraid, Diore Lia is not about to be one of them.