All Blacks should now bet on a 3-0 series whitewash
After a dreadful first week, the Lions must pick strongest team on Saturday to stop the rot
If I were All Blacks head coach Steve Hansen I would be betting the mortgage on a 3-0 series whitewash based on the evidence so far – which is why Warren Gatland needs to pick his Test side now and play it against the Crusaders on Saturday. It has been a pretty awful first week from a Lions point of view and they are in desperate need of some momentum. Gatland will know that can be generated if they beat the best Super Rugby side New Zealand has to offer in Christchurch, but if they do not I really do fear for them.
So far, the Lions tactics have been predictable and badly executed, and it makes me worry about what is to come. The Provincial Barbarians and the Blues are the two weakest sides the Lions will face, and we should have had two thumping victories. Instead, we have had one narrow win and one narrow defeat.
Individual players have done well, but as a team we seem to be relying on smashing into them up front and rolling them over in the scrum. No one has ever beaten New Zealand playing that way and no one ever will. I would even go as far as to say that we have failed to perform in every aspect, again bar the scrum.
You can implement a basic, onedimensional game plan if you do it well. You have to carry exceptionally, be defensively tight, not give away any penalties and ensure both your scrum and line-out are bang on. In four of those areas we are badly underperforming.
Take the carrying, for example. All I saw at Eden Park yesterday were individuals going on their own, without support. You overwhelm a defence with wave after wave of attacks. Instead, the Blues – who would lose to Saracens by 30 points if they played them, by the way – were able to cut down individual runners with ease and not commit to the breakdown. Then it becomes a numbers game that the Lions simply cannot win.
Defence was another issue. We were far too narrow and that first try for the Blues was a classic example of players trying, and failing, to get used to a new system. James Haskell stepped in when he should not and Jack Nowell closed his shoulders defensively to try to cover. In the Premiership his pace can get him out of trouble, but
Rieko Ioane is a step above anyone he will have faced before. Defence is one thing the Lions must get right, and quickly.
Having said that, my main concern is behind the scrum. Can we put together a back three with the pace, agility and handling skills to match not just the All Blacks but any of their Super Rugby sides? I am not sure we can, and if we cannot then I wonder why certain ‘in-between’ players are in the squad. If we want to base our game around stopping the opposition and not making mistakes then Mike Brown should be in that squad over Leigh Halfpenny, who seems to have been included for his goal-kicking despite the presence of others who can match him in that regard.
I am sure the Lions themselves will be shocked at how they have struggled to get going. The problem with the start they have had is that it can create a disconnect between what you are told by the coaches and what you believe in as players. It is hard to buy into a coaching concept when you are losing, and under extreme pressure players can revert to what they know, as happened with some yesterday.
I am also worried about how much fun they are having on tour. All they will have read is negativity in the press, especially after Warren Gatland’s very defensive comments about ‘Warrenball’ the other day. Add to that, it is freezing cold, pouring with rain and you are at the end of a long season and it is clear Gatland needs to get some smiles back on his squad’s faces.
That is the reason I would select the strongest team possible against the Crusaders. The message needs to be sent out: it is time for the big dogs to step up. That means Owen Farrell – who must surely start at fly-half after Jonathan Sexton had another off-day yesterday – Conor Murray and George North all need to come to the party. We need to restart this tour with a bang.
That is not to say the first two games have been a complete waste of time. I would pick three English second rows, with George Kruis and Courtney Lawes in the engine room and Maro Itoje at flanker. They have all been excellent, while I was impressed by Rhys Webb – imagine what he could do with quick ball!
Obviously it is too early to over-react... I hear you. But overall I have seen nothing so far that makes me confident we can beat the All Blacks. The most elated I have seen anyone in a red shirt is after a scrum penalty and a couple of turnovers – not after the type of brilliant score the Blues pulled off against them late yesterday.
There is still time, just about, to turn it around but few could argue this has been anything other than a really disappointing week. It is not over, but the hill the Lions are going to have to climb is a hell of a lot steeper than it looked when they stepped off the plane.
They need to get back on track, and they need to do so on Saturday.