Bad omens

Of the 28 Lions tours, 20 teams who won the first Test won the series. first Test was a draw, so just twice have a team come back to win.

The All Blacks have won 19 of 21 games at the Westpac. Read, Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick.

Hence Gatland’s change of direction when he spoke to us in Wellington last night: “If I was playing on Saturday night and felt I’d been physically dominated I’d feel a little disappointed with myself. If I felt my pride was hurt a little bit I’d be wanting to fix that.”

This could hardly be clearer. Gatland is challenging his players to return to the machismo that delivered them to Auckland in decent shape, given their crazy schedule. “Sometimes at the top level it’s not about pretty rugby,” he said. “We’ve seen the All Blacks in the past play some pretty physical rugby. They were pretty brutal in the breakdown area [in Auckland] and we need to match fire with fire if we’re going to do well on Saturday night.”

With so much speculation about the viability of future Lions tours, and the spectre of 2005’s 3-0 hammering lurking, Gatland’s men are entitled to return to what they know best, provided they can still execute the physical, tactical Plan A that draws so much mirth from New Zealand pundits. Those commentators conveniently ignore the fact that the All Blacks opted for a more European style to counteract the Lions’ game plan.

They, too, are unromantic when they need to be.

As a Kiwi, Gatland understands the darkly pragmatic side of New Zealand rugby, and now wants to return to macho confrontation. We already know the Lions lack the accuracy to outscore the All Blacks in tries, however good Liam Williams’s sidesteps in Auckland. So it makes sense for the Lions coach to appeal to baser instincts. The series needs saving, in the biggest week of Gatland’s coaching career.

“The Lions did plenty well, but they didn’t have the breadth of skill,” another local pundit observed. But the condescension festival has to end.

How, I asked, would Gatland stop his players absorbing the fears of their stoical travelling army: the sense that these All Blacks are ultimately unplayable? “They [New Zealand] were good last night, but having gone back and looked at the tape at 13-8 we were in the game creating opportunities,” he said. “And you look at the soft tries they’ve scored and think, those things are fixable. You can turn things round in a week and work hard on making those improvements.”

A solid, empirical approach. Science over art. This week, survival is the only game in town.