Kiwis would see defeat as start of an apocalypse
The mood has shifted for the hosts and a tight start can make them choke under pressure
After winning back to back World Cups, the talk of the All Blacks’ propensity to choke under pressure died away. This weekend we will discover whether that is really the case. I have my doubts. Look at their last match of equal significance on home soil – the 2011 World Cup final. They were playing a poor French team that had managed to reach the final despite losing to Tonga. With several of the greatest players of all time at their disposal, New Zealand only managed to win 8-7. If you look at the performance rather than the result, that is a choke job.
Most Kiwis confidently predicted a 3-0 clean sweep before this series (as did I). They are already embarrassed by losing the second Test (as am I).
One defeat to the Lions might be seen as forgivable in the context of Sonny Bill Williams’s red card. A series defeat would be treated like the start of the apocalypse.
Unless you have been to New Zealand, it is hard to explain how great the stakes are this weekend. Donald Trump could declare war on North Korea today and that would not make the front page if the All Blacks lose. The retribution will be severe. Winning a World Cup will not spare calls for Steve Hansen’s head. Imagine the inquest into England’s World Cup group exit and multiply that by 10 million!
I still find it amazing how a single moment – Jerome Garces’s decision to penalise Charlie Faumuina for a mid-air tackle in the 74th minute – can change the whole narrative of this Lions series.
Let’s imagine Garces had not brought the whistle to his lips and the Lions had to settle for a draw. Or if Beauden Barrett had packed his kicking boots last Saturday. What would we be saying now? That Warren Gatland was tactically useless for failing to beat a team with 14 men for nearly an hour? That the Lions concept as a whole is endangered? That New Zealand are simply incapable of defeat?
As it is, Gatland is being declared a tactical genius, the Lions are supposedly safe for a generation and we are exploring newfound vulnerabilities in the All Blacks.
The whole mood has shifted. Gatland feels comfortable enough to pick the same 23 while Steve Hansen has effectively picked a scratch division of outside backs. Picking Jordie Barrett for his start at full-back is a sensible enough move to counter the Lions kicking game but in this context it has a whiff of panic. International coaching is defined through the prism of results and largely the narrative is created either way, post-event: a coach is either fool or an Einstein. In the big games, this is multiplied still further.
The Lions’ task will be to be compound that pressure by making it a good start. I know it is always said that the first 20 minutes are crucial but in this case they will determine the series.
If New Zealand get 10 points ahead then they can relax and pick off the Lions as they try to force the game. If it remains tight then that pressure will become enormous for the All Blacks. Let’s remember they lost 700 caps in retirements after the World Cup. Until now they have not really missed a beat in terms of results but this is where that experience really counts.
I believe the All Blacks will go back to attacking around the fringes like in the first Test. Funnily enough, in the context of the talk of Warrenball, I think the Lions’ best chance of victory will be to use as much width as possible depending on the conditions. New Zealand have basically got a new backline so I would like to see as much movement of their back three as possible. Crossfield kicks could be a weapon.
The Lions need to score tries to win. Hopefully the victory in the second Test and the R& R they have undertaken in Queenstown will enable them to relax enough to give it a really good crack. If they do that and strike an early blow then we will see what these All Blacks are really made of.