Stokes must be let loose with the bat to seal Ashes glory

Strong seam attack the key for England to keep all-rounder fresh against Australia this winter

For England to retain the Ashes this winter – and their graph is going up after the two Test series wins this summer against South Africa and West Indies – there are two key indicators of success. In bowling, England have to take at least 80 wickets to retain the Ashes. In batting, they have to score plenty of individual centuries.

Last time they won in Australia, in 2010-11, England scored nine hundreds. On the previous occasion in 1986-87 they scored seven, as in 1970-71. An exception occurred in 1978-79, but England were then playing the Australia second XI because their best players had signed for World Series Cricket, and also machine-made Kookaburra balls were used for the first time; totals on both sides were exceptionally low.

The best way for England to win the next Ashes series is not to pack their line-up with rookies and hope. If Mark Stoneman, Tom Westley and Dawid Malan – three of England’s current top five – were to play the whole series, you would probably accept one century between them and be delighted with two. Australia can field one of their most formidable attacks ever if three out of Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Pat Cummins and James Pattinson are fit – and it is distinctly possible that Australia could play all four of them, in addition to Nathan Lyon, because they can all bat apart from Hazlewood.

It would be premature to regard Westley’s unbeaten 44, as England won by nine wickets at Lord’s on Saturday to take the series 2-1, as a complete breakthrough. His innings showed he has the temperament for Test cricket, but his technique is still unproven

The best way for England to win the series is not to pack their line-up with rookies and hope

because only six of his runs were scored against pace bowling.

So how are England to score enough runs against Australia and who will make those individual centuries in quantity? Alastair Cook scored three hundreds in 2010-11, just as another tall and tough left-handed opener, Chris Broad, did in 1986-87 to be the foundation of England’s success. But Cook is not churning them out quite like he used to: the captaincy came to have a corrosive effect and we have moved into an era where DRS is the bowler’s friend, and totals are lower. In the past four years Cook has made six Test centuries, so this winter England might have to settle for two.

Joe Root is at the height of his game, but this has been reflected in a plethora of fifties. Not since the home Ashes series of 2015 has he scored more than one century in a series. Again, as with Cook, one would have to settle for two by Root – and another by Jonny Bairstow – but that will still leave England short.

On England’s last Ashes tour, the whitewash of 2013-14, they scored only one century in the entire series, such was the overwhelming force of Mitchell Johnson and Ryan Harris. It was the 120 made by Ben Stokes in his second Test match. It was a superlative achievement in salvaging some respect from the wreckage, owing nothing to luck and everything to his skills, and made at Perth’s Waca too.

If England can get three centuries out of Stokes this winter, they will surely win or at least secure the draw that retains the Ashes. To maximise the chances of this happening, Stokes must not be allowed to bowl too much.

Of course he will bowl if he is asked, or even if he is not, but it is in England’s best interests that Stokes soon evolves into the best left-handed batsman they have ever had – and having top-scored in the last two Tests at Leeds and Lord’s, he is well on course.

As for those 80 wickets, it may sound a simple task, but Stuart Broad last time – at his best – managed only 21. And it would be unrealistic to expect England’s off-spinner to contribute many given that Graeme Swann at his peak managed only 15, when England won 3-1 in 2010-11, and Jim Laker the same number in 1958-59. If Moeen Ali takes 10 – in addition to making his share of runs – he will be doing all right, as well as he did in the five-test series in India last winter.

James Anderson took 24 wickets in Australia in 2010-11, but only 14 in 2013-14. Amid the celebrations of his 500 wickets and career-best innings figures of seven for 42, it is worth bearing in mind that he did not take a wicket in his last two Tests abroad, in India.

He has to be spared donkey work in Australia to maximise the new balls.

Hence, England’s strategy should be to play to their exceptional strength, which is their all-rounders, pack their side with seamers so that one of them is always fresh and aim for one of the lower-scoring Ashes series.