Clubs could decide to throw in the towel
As injuries rise, teams may focus on domestic front rather than the brutal Champions Cup
think a few directors of rugby will think we cannot afford to keep battering our assets in the hope someone else slips up.
My rule of thumb when assessing the groups is rule out a team’s three best players and think how they would do. How would Leinster fare without Jonathan Sexton, Sean O’brien and Tadhg Furlong? Or Glasgow Warriors without Finn Russell, Stuart Hogg and Jonny Gray? We will see how Leinster do without Sexton tonight against Montpellier.
Saracens are masters of this, as other than Maro Itoje, they have been rotating the rest of their Lions every week and have barely missed a beat in the Premiership. Their depth is unreal. If their first-choice front row of Mako Vunipola, Jamie George and Vincent Koch is missing then they can call upon Richard Barrington, Schalk Brits and Juan Figallo. That is staggering. I have them as one of my finalists.
Who will they be playing? My instinct says Montpellier. Unlike Saracens, they do not have much of a pedigree in this competition, but we saw they meant business in Europe when they won last season’s Challenge Cup, a competition French sides traditionally treat with utter disdain. Then Mohed Altrad, their owner, went and appointed Vern Cotter from Scotland and basically left his chequebook open. In came Ruan Pienaar and Louis Picamoles, two of the very best players in the history of the competition, and All Blacks fly-half Aaron Cruden. Add that to that a herd of Springboks and you are looking at some serious firepower.
Montpellier’s first hurdle will be to get out of probably the hardest of all the groups with Leinster, Glasgow and Exeter. They could just as easily finish fourth in that pool as champions. Exeter will be a really interesting team to follow. As English champions, the next stage of their evolution is to prove that they belong with the European big boys. The Chiefs’ high tempo, direct style should make for a fascinating contrast against the Warriors tonight.
La Rochelle are my dark horses. They a bit like Exeter. Not the biggest spenders but they have developed a style that works and are tough to beat at home. Victor Vito adds that bit of stardust.
I still do not see any challengers coming from the Pro 14. The teams are good enough on paper, but week in, week out the base level of the Pro 14 is nowhere near as high as the French or English league. When the English and French teams come into Europe they need to step it up 10-15 per cent, whereas the Pro 14 guys are stepping it up 20-30 per cent from what they are used to playing week in, week out.
In that respect, the intensity of the Premiership, which has led to so many injuries, actually becomes a strength for the English teams as the season progresses.
When you are one of English rugby’s most disliked individuals, it is always heartening when someone comes along to take the heat off you. Thanks, then, to Rob Andrew, whose autobiography has been serialised in The Daily Telegraph.
I read another article this week about how some people have the ability to make up memories. So, they will end up sincerely believing events that never happened. That appears to be the case with Andrew. He genuinely believes all the mistakes that occurred on his watch were someone else’s fault and he had nothing to do with it. It is like someone driving a bus that crashes and then the driver blames the passengers.
Austin Healey is a proud ambassador of Jeep Grand Cherokee www.jeep.co.uk