Guardiola’s new formula? Never take a step back
City manager has realised this season that City need to chase a three-goal advantage because the English game is so hard to predict. It makes for a thrilling spectacle
The Premier League has learnt a lot about Pep Guardiola since he arrived in England – but Guardiola has also learnt. He has learnt three things. The first is “the twist”; the second is that to win a game here you have to score at least three goals; the third is what, for him, will never change – if you play your football, if you keep the ball, you will eventually succeed in the final 30 minutes.
Guardiola’s presence in England has become almost a live experiment. There are those desperate for him to fail, latching on to every mistake, complaining about the millions spent. And there are those urging him to succeed because of the football he plays. What is certain, and fascinating, is that Guardiola will never compromise.
But the Manchester City manager has learnt, which makes his team’s remarkable start to this campaign – with 28 points and a goal difference of plus-29 after 10 games, the best since the Premier
If they carry on like this, they will compare to the most formidable teams in Premier League history
League was formed – all the more threatening to their rivals.
First, though, there is “the twist” which is the randomness that exists in football but especially in England. A team can be winning 2-0 with 10 minutes to go, yet do not decide to simply keep the ball. They might mix it up. Might play the ball forward in the air. And then there is what Guardiola has previously complained about – in England, the referees blow less for perceived offences. So, you have to win the so-called “second ball”, or even the third, fourth or fifth, as the ball is fought for from a header or knock-down. Noticeably, therefore, Guardiola has complained less this season.
That is why a team have to score three times, at least, to win, he has concluded. So, to do that, Guardiola’s aim is to devastate, destroy an opponent in the first half an hour. Two or three goals then and even “the twist” becomes less of a threat.
After that, it comes down to playing your football and, crucially, the quality of player you need to do that. Last season, City played well but not well enough, partly because they did not have the quality. Last season there was not Ederson in goal making saves or Kyle Walker at full-back making the recovery runs or, in fact, John Stones at centre-half winning challenges.
Stones was there last season but he has improved hugely this campaign. As have Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane. All three, for Guardiola, are like new signings in a team who are playing some of the best football seen in this league and who, if they carry on like this, will be compared to the most formidable teams in Premier League history – the Manchester United Treble winners of 1999, the Arsenal Invincibles of 2002,
Jose Mourinho’s first Chelsea team of 2005.
They also have a crucial factor that potentially makes them even more significant: they are far younger than all those teams.
It is ridiculously premature to make assessments and comparisons although they may well come. City are unbeaten in 15 matches, in all competitions, since the start of the season but more impressive than that statistic, or the goals tally, is the football they are playing.
For Guardiola everything has a purpose
– every movement, every pass. If the full-back is wide, the winger has to be inside. If the full-back is inside, the winger has to be outside – because then you have the pass. To do this, Guardiola teaches the players to understand the game – in training, in every small detail, and that also takes time. They know him more this season than last and they also know what his ideal is: to control the game for 90 minutes, to create more than 10 chances in that game and to have one-against-one opportunities more than three times.
There are lessons. One is simple: if you have the chance to cross the ball, it is not just about then crossing but seeing where you have to cross, to create what is termed “the smooth cross”. This is also about convincing a player that he has the skill and ability that gives him time to do this even in the hurly-burly of the Premier League. The best players act in split seconds, while believing they have time.
Another lesson: things happen in a game not just because a player has quality or because the ball is round. There is not a pattern to follow but there is a way to play and that way has to be remembered.
Then, above all, there is the clear blue water of philosophical difference between Guardiola and Mourinho and Antonio Conte which can best be defined as: the purpose of football is not to counter-attack. This is the most important lesson for Guardiola. He sends his team out to try to win from the first minute. He is not going to wait to see if the other team make a mistake or fail. He is going to approach and push. His idea is this – let’s fight one v one. He is not hiding anything.
For Guardiola, then, a tactical masterclass is not to nullify an opponent, to prey on mistakes and then to score with the one chance that is created but to generate 12-15 chances in a game and to play entertaining, attacking, dominant football. This game is played with the ball, he tells his players, not without it.
History tells us – from Spain and Germany – that Guardiola will succeed and, if he does, then this City side may dominate for three or four years. Even if he does not, though, he should be applauded for his approach.