Highland Reel the best hope in record Cup raid
The tightest of courses here at Del Mar will put Europeans on back foot, says Marcus Armytage
It may be the biggest European raiding party ever for a Breeders’ Cup but, with no certainties among the 35 horses, it is highly unlikely it will be the most successful – due in no small part to Del Mar’s tight turns and, in some races, the short run to the first bend and, in all races, the short home stretch.
When Europe won five and six races at Santa Anita in 2008 and 2009, not only was the track synthetic rather than dirt, but the turns were of a more European nature. Del Mar will take horses and jockeys by surprise.
You can put a line through the dirt races for the Europeans and it is on the turf where they are most likely to succeed. Normally the nearest thing to a guaranteed winner is the Turf (11.37pm) and this again provides their strongest chance this year.
Since 2000, it has been won by the home team only five times and there is nothing to suggest they have a vintage crop this year. Aidan O’brien has won it six times and, back on fast ground, Highland Reel should add to the collection by defending his title. O’brien explained that his run in the Champion Stakes a fortnight ago was much needed after a setback. “Ryan minded him and kept him on the best ground,” he said.
Ulysses will like the ground and has a good draw but has looked unsettled in the mornings this week. Suedois (Mile, 10.19) could provide one of the feel good stories of the meeting. A year ago he fractured a pedal bone at Santa Anita. Now he is in the form of his life after stepping up to a mile and beat many of America’s best in Keeneland last month. Having spent most of his life sprinting, his tactical speed will be a huge asset.
Wuheida (Filly & Mare Turf, 9.00) has looked a picture of calm every morning this week and the vibes here are strong. Last year’s winner, Queen’s Trust, has a poor draw and while Nezwaah has her ground, her draw is even wider.
The most intriguing question of the day, however, is whether Arrogate, racing’s record moneywinner, can regain his winning thread in the Classic (12.35am).
I fear he left body parts out on the track in the Dubai World Cup and he does not appear to like Del Mar. Collected is a course specialist but the rising star, much as Arrogate was this time last year, is another Baffert runner, West Coast. Dual Guineas winner Churchill will probably be wondering what has hit him when he gets his first mouthful of dirt. War Decree, lightly raced this year but bred for the dirt, can beat him although the chances of winning look slim.
Last night, O’brien got Europe off the mark when Mendelsshon won the Juvenile Turf to give the trainer a 27th Group One victory of a record breaking season.