Russian roulette Why Southgate’s men could face Brazil and Iceland

Coach insists group will not determine fortunes England may face trek of 6,000 miles for matches

The World Cup draw takes place today, with England determined to base themselves outside St Petersburg, no matter who they face or where they face them in this vast country covering one-eighth of the world’s inhabited land.

There is a nightmare scenario, despite Gareth Southgate’s denials, in which his side travel more than 6,000 miles – 2,000 more than they did in Brazil – for the three group matches.

But, a year to the day since Southgate was appointed England manager, he explained in the concert hall at the State Kremlin Palace here in Moscow why he is not concerning himself with what today’s draw may throw up.

That is because – and this was a recurring theme as he spoke – England have been guilty of “underestimating” supposedly weaker opposition in the past. “The idea that there is sailing through any game at a World Cup – if that’s been our mentality in the past maybe that’s why we haven’t done so well,” Southgate said. “Some teams in the past would have seemed a good draw – I’m thinking the likes of Sweden [at the World Cups in 2002 and 2006], but we have a very average record against them and have found it difficult to play against them. Often we have underestimated countries.”

At the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, England were drawn against Algeria, Slovenia and the United States and although they got through to the last 16, their performances were deathly. Four years later, Greg Dyke, then FA chairman, made a throat-slitting gesture when England came out along with Italy, Uruguay and Costa Rica and that proved prescient. They were home within days of the start of the tournament, having finished bottom of the group.

Southgate was in Brazil for the last World Cup, scouting for the Football Association. “I watched Costa Rica’s first two games,” he said. “Everybody had ruled them out and I was sitting there watching them celebrate qualifying [at England’s expense] after two matches.”

Reminded of an even more recent failure, at Euro 2016, Southgate added: “It is important that we never underestimate our opponents. I’m looking at a couple of the Icelandic players who play in our league. Iceland have some good players and they’ve shown that.”

Given that England are in Pot Two, and Iceland, at their first World Cup, are in Pot Three (as are Sweden), and given that two European nations can be in the same group (the only confederation for which this is allowed) another match between them is possible. If that happens, there may not a throat-slitting gesture but there will be a shudder – although Southgate claimed he had a “reasonable poker face”.

In two draw rehearsals, England were grouped with Brazil, Australia and Tunisia and then Germany, Australia and Costa Rica. “The draw does not determine whether we have a good or bad tournament,” Southgate reasoned. “Our mindset has to be that every opponent at this tournament is a team that can beat you. Equally, every opponent is a team we can beat. We would rather be one of the top seeds but we are not and that’s the consequence of a few years of [under] performance and certainly our performance in the last two tournaments.”

For England to do well, Harry Kane needs to do well and there was a message to the striker if he wants to be considered to be among the elite. “I’m certain that is Harry’s ambition, and there’s no question if that is his ambition, then this is the stage to go and show it,” Southgate said. “As a player, you are judged a lot by what happens with your club, but, in the end, the world stars are ultimately judged by what they do with their country, and in major

tournaments, this is the stage for all of our guys to show exactly the level they are capable of.”

Given the scale of Russia, the distances, the weather variations and time-zones, then the draw does matter. The gruelling draw would be C3 – first game in Saransk, then east to Yekaterinburg and finally the most southern venue, the sultry Sochi. That would be 6,121 miles.

But whatever the draw, England will be at the Forrestmix Club hotel in Repino, a seaside resort on the shores of the Gulf of Finland. “We have researched it. In terms of the travel, the longest flight is three hours,” Southgate argued. “That’s nothing – all the players are travelling that sort of distance for Champions League games.”

The most difficult question for Southgate is what constitutes success. “If we come back and the country are proud, that will mean we have played well, in a way that the nation has engaged with and we will have won some games,” he said.

England fielded the third-youngest squad in qualifying – average age 25.9 – behind world champions Germany (25.7) – and Nigeria (24.9) with Southgate intent on taking an even younger squad to Russia.

“People are excited by some of the younger players and the approach we have taken and we have got to build on that,” he said.

After the controversy over the awarding of the tournament, the ongoing scandal over alleged doping by Russian footballers, the friction between Vladimir Putin and the West, the fears over hooliganism and terror attacks, the draw is finally here. The countdown to June 14 at the Luzhniki Stadium, the first of 64 games between 32 nations in 11 cities, begins.