POOL FIVE

One point separates Bath, Toulon and Scarlets, largely because Benetton have been far better than expected. It would be a real shock if only one side escapes from the pool involving the Italian team but that is a real possibility, with Benetton left kicking themselves for not closing out games they had in their grasp.

I think Bath will eventually emerge victorious, although I would put no more than a pound or two on it. They have faced Toulon twice and I think they will beat the Scarlets at the Rec tonight in what could be a classic, where the freezing weather may just do for the Welsh province’s freeflowing game. If they do that then a win in Italy would be enough, and while that is not the foregone conclusion it once was you would

still expect them to do so – indeed, they should not be allowed home if they fail in Italy having won against Scarlets.

That means Toulon could still make it through despite being terrible throughout. They have never failed to get through to the knockout rounds and the most likely outcome is they will need to win at Parc y Scarlets in round six. I would back them to do it, through power rather than anything more artistic. I still think that six of my original eight predictions will make the last eight.

I am particularly pleased with how La Rochelle, Leinster and Munster have lived up to my billing, while I think that Scarlets and Racing 92 will miss out in place of Bath and Wasps. But neither of them are dead and buried yet. You never can tell.