Confidence is soaring as England aim for the stars
Historic opportunity for place in semi-finals Sweden are dangerous and familiar opponent
CHIEF FOOTBALL CORRESPONDENT in Samara In Samara, the once secretive heart of the Soviet space programme, England are on the verge of lift-off. And that is part of the danger as they prepare for an unlikely World Cup quarter-final against Sweden.
Win this and the upward trajectory behind Gareth Southgate and this growing team will go into orbit. Lose and it will feel like the opportunity of a lifetime has been squandered. Blown, in fact, even if it will still be deemed a successful(ish) campaign. It is not rocket science.
The fact that it is Sweden who stand in England’s way and then a semi-final against either Russia or Croatia makes it all the more tricky – rather than formidable – and yet all the more familiar.
In a sense, this is already a retro tie, a throwback to the Nineties when England reached the last four of Italia 90, then also the semifinals of Euro 96 when Three Lions – revived at home and in Russia – became their anthem. The Swedes had their own heady summer sandwiched in between when they reached the semi-finals of the 1994 World Cup in the United States with their own anthem, Vi Graver Guld i USA (We are digging gold in the US). They are mining again and have tried to get under England’s skin.
There is something almost familial about Sweden’s relationship with England, given the Scandinavians have drawn so much from English football over the years, in tactics and approach, and yet appear to delight in trying to portray their opponents as elitist fancydans who regard their meetings with a sense of entitlement. A kind of sibling rivalry, in fact, or a rich relative who tries to rub it in.
That is the cliché, that is the past, although predictably the Swedes have tried to play on this theme in the run-up to the tie with even claims from within their camp that the refrain “football’s coming home” is presumptuous rather than just a line from the Three Lions song about a tournament based in England, which obviously also had a hopeful rather than expectant second meaning.
Even after the pre-match press conference yesterday, a Swedish television crew was interviewing English reporters and tried to trip them up with two obvious lines: surely England are strong favourites and, by the way, can you name any Swedish players?
For England, the danger signs are obvious. The Football Association has gone further than ever before in the detail of its scouting reports and analysis and it will have reported back that Sweden, predictably, are going to be hard to beat with their 4-4-2 formation and strong defensive organisation.
Sweden have also gained results with little more than 30 per cent possession and, as Southgate pointed out, beat France in the qualification campaign, beat Italy in the play-offs and knocked Germany out in the group stages. So, the challenge is set.
But beyond that, there is a curiousness to them, given they are a counter-attacking team without much pace, a physical side who do not resort to the roughhouse tactics of some nations at this World Cup, and a side without a goal-scoring striker yet who have scored six times (and conceded just twice) in four games to this point. They have three clean sheets; England have none.
Rest assured, England will have done their homework but it is not arrogant to say that the course of the match will depend more on how proactive they can be and whether their physical fitness, after extra time and penalties, and a dressing room which resembled “a scene from M*A*S*H” according to Southgate after the Colombia game stands up.
Conversely, as captain Harry Kane hinted, confidence is soaring following the last-16 victory, and the manner of it. “You get the hunger,” Kane said, giving the air of a ravenous man.
There is a concern at a lack of creativity which Southgate has conceded. England are predictably hugely reliant on Kane, even if they have struggled to create chances for him. Six goals, yes, but they have come from three penalties, two headers from corners and a deflection. Given Sweden have stated their intention is to “stop Kane”, then it is most definitely time for others to step up.
Chiefly among those has to be Raheem Sterling, who has played better than some have suggested, Jesse Lingard and Dele Alli, who may be hampered by injury but is still waiting for a big moment at this World Cup.
Another key factor is whether England can maintain their high press in the heat. It is forecast to be around 29C at kick-off in Samara, where there has been a recordbreaking heatwave in recent days, and statistics show that England have closed down the opposition quicker than any other team at this tournament. Can they maintain that? Given Sweden will unashamedly intend to sit deep it could be hard work to breach that yellow wall and the danger for England will be getting sucked into possession for possession sake.
If they can get the balance right, play the ball quickly and draw Sweden out of position then they can get the job done early. Otherwise it could be another tense, tight contest and one that may again be decided by set-pieces or going the distance. Either way England need to shoot for the moon. on the bench. The striker took part in the warm-up yesterday but not the main training session.
If Alli does miss out, it will be a big blow to the Tottenham Hotspur player, who is yet to have the “big moment” at this World Cup which he dreamt of.
That has been a cause of frustration for him and for Southgate, who has also debated using Ruben Loftus-cheek but appears to have decided on Dier and moving Henderson if Alli misses out.
Otherwise, England are expected to be unchanged, with Ashley Young having recovered from his ankle injury to edge out Danny Rose, and Kyle Walker fit after suffering cramp. Harry Kane has also shaken off the effects of a tight calf.
Of Alli’s involvement so far, Southgate said: “Dele’s performance against Tunisia was as good as he’s had since I’ve been England manager. He’s at his best making those forward runs and threatening the opponents through midfield. The other night [against Colombia], the game was different and he did a diligent job without the ball for us.
“We have to encourage him to get into those areas where his strengths lie and he can have an influence on the game. He did a fantastic job for the team. Sometimes against top opposition, it’s about striking a balance to do both.”