What England must do to prevail
Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane have formed a far more effective partnership than has been recognised. They complement each other well and although Kane was not at his best against Sweden, and although attention focused on Sterling wasting a clear first-half chance when through on goal, they are ideal playing together to cause problems for Croatia’s centrebacks.
Neither Dejan Lovren nor Domagoj Vida have pace and Sterling running in behind them could be key to England winning the semifinal while Kane has the physical ability to deal with them and the nous to drop off if he has to.
Sterling easily had the beating of Sweden’s Andreas Granqvist and Victor Lindelof with his determination to break in behind and pull the defenders out of place.
It will also be in the forefront of Gareth Southgate’s mind that Kane gave Lovren a torrid time when Tottenham Hotspur played Liverpool last season and the Croatian was substituted after just half an hour. But England are still not creating enough clear-cut chances and know this could ultimately catch them out against the best teams, like Croatia. England have not varied their tactics much and that was again the case against Sweden who deployed their usual 4-4-2 and set the challenge of being breached.
Southgate seems determined not to shift his approach depending on the opposition. He had considered 3-4-3 an option – he seems likely to play three at the back come what may – but has not done that.
Croatia have constantly varied formation and shifted around their team but Southgate is unlikely to react. In saying that his 3-5-2 might be ideally suited to deal with Croatia, whose strength lies in midfield. To make that work it may be a case of Dele Alli having to do even more defensive graft, as he did against Colombia.
Against Sweden, Alli did not play well – he does not appear fully fit – but managed to score. Southgate admits he has not got the best out of Alli but it may fall to him to try to look after Luka Modric, who has been one of the World Cup’s standout players. England might consider bringing in Fabian Delph or Eric Dier, and pushing Jordan Henderson forward, but would lose some of their attacking threat if they did. England have scored eight of their 11 goals from set-pieces – the most by any team at a tournament since Portugal in 1966 – and that is the kind of statistic which frightens opponents. Sweden could not cope with England’s ability from deadball situations, as shown by Harry Maguire’s header to open the scoring, and Croatia will be concerned. England can make whatever plays they want but however good the likes of Maguire and John Stones are in the air does not matter if the ball is not there. Kieran Trippier has been outstandingly precise