Who needs the top seeds with qualit
Semi-final match-ups promise a classic day Williams and Kerber face searching tests
As William Shakespeare almost wrote, what’s in a number? The top 10 seeds of the women’s draw had all fallen by Monday, but today’s semi-finals look as strong as anything we have seen at Wimbledon for a decade.
The favourites are not in doubt. In the bottom half of the draw, you would back Serena Williams, the greatest player of this or any other age, who will match Margaret Court’s record of 24 majors if she lifts the title on Saturday.
In the top, most pundits are tipping Angelique Kerber, who won both the hard-court grand slam titles of 2016, but is only now beginning to recapture her old resilience.
These are hardly obscurities, even if neither woman has been stacking up the silverware lately. Williams is ranked a scarcely believable No181, after her pregnancy and childbirth kept her off the tour for the best part of 18 months. Kerber has been short of her best for almost as long, having struggled to deal with the fruits of her own success. Still, rewind 22 months or so and they shared the top two seedings for two straight slams.
So should we get excited about our line-up, which happens to feature three slam winners out of four? Will we see drama to match yesterday’s men’s quarter-finals, which felt like the first really seismic day of Wimbledon 2018?
It is possible. And yet, at the same time, the precedents for Williams’s match against Julia Goerges are not hugely encouraging.
These two stand well clear at the top of the aces chart for the fortnight, with 39 and 44 respectively. As a result, we can expect the rhythm to be as staccato as Williams’s quarter-final victory over Camila Giorgi.
But there does seem to be a personality contrast here. Williams transmits the same “Am I bovvered?” vibe whether she is playing on Centre Court or practising on Aorangi Park. But Goerges seemed to shrink into herself during her third-round meeting with Williams at last month’s French Open, backing away so noticeably that she all but ended up in the courtside flower boxes.
Will Goerges surprise us all, as she plays her first grand-slam semi-final at the relatively advanced age of 29? It is possible, although the press conference that she gave after her quarter-final victory over Kiki Bertens was less than encouraging. Asked about Williams, Goerges replied submissively: “It’s an honour to share the court with her.”
This is the other side of Being Serena – to borrow the title of HBO’S documentary series. Williams always likes to claim that her opponents are inspired by her own legendary stature.
As she put it last week – in a quote she was so pleased with that she immediately turned it into a social-media graphic – “That’s what makes me great: I always play everyone at their greatest.”
But anyone who watches closely will know that Williams’s opponents are just as likely to freeze as they are to develop a hot hand. Probably more so.
Justine Henin, who was once Williams’s greatest rival, pinpointed this phenomenon in 2015, “The thing that I regret a little bit is that I don’t have the feeling that she’s really pushed by the other players,” said Henin.
“But,” she added, “I am also surprised we don’t have a new generation that really say, ‘OK, the old ones, now, you go, we take your place’.”
If there is such a young player on the tour, her name might just be Jelena Ostapenko. Last year’s French Open champion, the 21-year-old is the only member of today’s quartet who has not dropped a set en route to the semifinals.
She, too, is an all-or-nothing sort of player, which is probably no coincidence. The fast, high-bouncing conditions have been kind to that style of play this fortnight, just as they carried the big-hitting Jim Courier to the final in 1993, the Wimbledon remembered as “the Sunshine Championships”.
Kerber and Ostapenko both prefer returning to serving, so expect to see plenty of breaks in this one, in contrast to the Williamsgoerges shoot-out. But that does not mean that they play in a similar way. Kerber puts a lot of balls back into court, then uses her strong legs and super-steady groundstrokes to squeeze the life out of her opponents. Meanwhile, Ostapenko just swings at everything like a sugar-crazed kid at a pinata party.
Whichever of these women reaches the final, she has the capacity to make life difficult for Williams if they both reach the final. The 25th seed – a discretional honour granted to Williams by the All England Club – is still a touch short of optimal sharpness yet she remains the runaway favourite.
Not that the number attached to your name has any great significance these days. Johanna Konta, the British No1, might not have reached the second week this year. But she could have been looking into the future when she opined last Thursday: “This Wimbledon is another demonstration of how seeding is not the be-all, end-all.” Julia Goerges (below) and Serena Williams (right) lead the aces count in this tournament, and service breaks could be few and far between. Goerges, in particular, must serve effectively to stand a chance. When the two met at the French Open last month, Goerges completely froze and looked beaten the moment she stepped on to the court. She cannot afford such mental weakness today. The only times Williams has looked beatable recently have been when her opponents have got her on the run. Even the greatest player of all time cannot instantly be back at her freshest after so long out.
Ostapenko just swings at everything like a sugar-crazed kit at a pinata party
Goerges is at her best when playing on the front foot, and she will only beat Williams by putting pressure on her and not simply hoping for mistakes. Williams has not looked entirely comfortable when up at the net, especially when the conditions have been windy. Goerges must try and upset the American’s rhythm by luring her forward.