Spurs and City will suffer most from fatigue
Weary players returning from Russia risk serious injury and a ‘corrosive impact’ on their season
Gareth Southgate’s phone will have been ringing off the hook for the past few days with messages of congratulations, but also a few of concern from Premier League managers. Mentally drained and physically depleted, England’s 23-man squad are among the 107 Premier League footballers returning from the World Cup and being plunged back into their club structure.
How these players are managed over the next two to three months will determine both the amount of transfer activity in the January window and potentially where the top places in the league go next May. And, considering the needs of the players, by giving them time to recover rather than just offering quick fixes will reap much greater benefits in the long run.
With the Premier League season kicking off on Aug 10, there is little time for respite. Many clubs who want a fast start to the season will be allowing their players the minimum of a three-week break, as demanded by the Professional Footballers’ Association. Others, such as Arsenal, under their new manager, Unai Emery, have opted for a longer four weeks.
The past three days will have been full of calls to agents and family to arrange holidays. Sir Alex Ferguson, when he was in charge at Manchester United, took a different and perhaps enlightened approach. He asked players to return after two weeks, especially when the national teams went deep in the tournaments. He did, though, promise them their own mini-winter break with up to 10 days off later.
The balance between time away from the club now and the need for a pre-season, in terms of tactical cohesion and physical readiness, is the big equation for the clubs to solve. If they look to the scientific literature, they will be keen to start the World Cup returners’ preseason as quickly as possible.
A study by the Football Research Group after the 2002 World Cup concluded that the likelihood of injury during the season increased when pre-season training was lighter. On top of this, rugby union and Australian Rules football have concluded there is a sweet spot for the amount of training needed, individually and collectively, to prevent injuries during the season.
Less training equals more injury risk, and this is compounded where the team has a new manager and a squad returning at different times. Spurs and Manchester City, who had the highest number of players in the semi-finals, seem the clubs at most risk of a disrupted August and September, and potentially a corrosive impact on the season. This is particularly true for Spurs: stripped of many of their stars for lucrative pre-season tours, they need to move stadium and also manage four games in three weeks, before the next international break, with a much shallower squad than their rivals.
Mauricio Pochettino’s skill and rapport with returning players will be tested as he seeks to combat fatigue, oversee sufficient injury prevention work and carefully align the physical fitness of the whole squad so the team can begin to train and play as one unit.
Mike Davison is managing director of Isokinetic Premier League rules state that players must have a two-week break between seasons, which means most of the squad will struggle to be ready for Aug 10.
Likely to be available Jordan Pickford (Everton) Nick Pope (Burnley) Trent Alexander-arnold (Liverpool)
Touch and go Danny Welbeck (Arsenal) Gary Cahill (Chelsea) John Stones (Man City) Harry Kane (Tottenham)
Unlikely
Ruben Loftus-cheek (Chelsea) Harry Maguire (Leicester) Jamie Vardy (Leicester) Jordan Henderson (Liverpool) Phil Jones (Man Utd) Jesse Lingard (Man Utd) Marcus Rashford (Man Utd) Ashley Young (Man Utd) Fabian Delph (Man City) Raheem Sterling (Man City) Kyle Walker (Man City) Dele Alli (Tottenham)
Eric Dier (Tottenham) Danny Rose (Tottenham) Kieran Trippier (Tottenham)