FOOTBALL NERD ALISTAIR TWEEDALE
It may be slightly too early to start making sweeping conclusions about the course of the 2018-19 Premier League season, but week one might just have indicated the start of a significant tactical trend.
After the (very successful) resurgence of the three-man defence – with which in recent years Chelsea won the league, Spurs mounted a couple of title challenges, the “Big Six” sides have all flirted, and Gareth Southgate gave England their most memorable major tournament in decades –
four at the back is, well, back. And based on what we saw last week, 4-3-3 looks like it could be the formation of choice for the next 10 months.
Each of the “Big Six” played with some iteration of the 4-3-3 in their opening match, a tactic which has been the basis for some of the Premier League’s greatest attacks. Think Duff, Robben, Drogba at Chelsea; Rooney, Ronaldo, Berbatov at Manchester United; or Sterling, Suarez, Sturridge at Liverpool.
After Sterling and Suarez left Liverpool in 2015, 4-3-3 took a nosedive. Three seasons ago, in 2015-16, the formation was used just 56 times over the course of the entire campaign, garnering a win rate of just 30.4 per cent.
But as history shows us, football’s trends are cyclical and Johan Cruyff ’s tactic of choice has since had a revival.
In 2016-17, 4-3-3 was used 161 times, with 41 per cent of those games won; in 2017-18 the formation was adopted 127 times, with a remarkable win rate of 52.8 per cent.
As was the case with so many sides deciding to follow Antonio Conte’s example with a threeman defence, could the blistering pace, quality and success of Pep Guardiola’s Premier League winners be setting the agenda for the coming years?
On the evidence of the opening weekend, when Liverpool, Manchester United, City, Spurs and Chelsea all won in a 4-3-3, and Arsenal began a new era under Unai Emery in the same formation, this could be a season in which another iconic Premier League front three is born.
For the rest, thinking about how to play against a team in such a formation might just be on the training-ground schedule.