Beating the Boks would be a major victory for Jones
England face a severe test in the first game of their autumn series and key to it will be how the depleted pack cope with their powerful opponents
Whatever happens in the autumn Tests, Eddie Jones, the England coach, will not be sacked; nor should he be. If you appoint a coach for a World Cup campaign, you should give him that time to succeed or fail.
It is easy to call for a head when things go wrong; less easy to make a change that will be better. This is not a relegation battle where a “coach’s bounce” could secure the three or four good results that will keep you up. England are competing with teams that have been meticulously planning their campaigns over four years.
With that in mind, England fans have to hope Jones’s assurance that the players who have reported for duty are in fantastic shape is right. Almost a whole team are unavailable through injury, retirement and suspension. What should have been an important test of where England are on their World Cup journey has turned into an important survival exercise. If England can show fluency and decent style, so much the better. Given their recent record, most fans are now focusing on wins.
The first match could be harder only if England were facing New Zealand. Even though their South African opponents might be missing a couple of important players, the way the Springboks finished the Rugby Championship was sensational. The must-win games for England are Japan and Australia and beating South Africa would stand out as a notable scalp. Even as little as a year ago, England would have been firm favourites at home and the fact that this game falls outside the international window makes them only marginally so. They have challenges to overcome, which are now significantly harder with recent events.
Forget inventiveness and guile, England have to front up up front. If they cannot match the Springboks’ power in the set-piece and elsewhere, they are in trouble.
They cannot afford to be badly beaten in the scrum because it would undermine their whole game. Though there are now fewer scrums, each one is an opportunity for a dominant pack to force a penalty. Seven or eight such penalties, added to those given in general play, would take any team into at least mid-teens. Concede that many penalties and statistically you are likely to lose.
On top of that there is the practical effect on the game. Kicks within range result in points but the beaten pack finds it almost impossible to spend extended time
Forget guile, England have to front up up front
in their opponent’s half. Each time they give away a scrum penalty, they are forced back 30 or 40 metres. That is psychologically draining, and this is on top of the demoralising experience of being shoved all over the place.
The Boks front row of Steven Kitshoff, Malcolm Marx and Frans Malherbe is powerful and performed with distinction against the All Blacks. Their replacements include Tendai “The Beast” Mtawarira and Trevor Nyakane.
England are without their three first-choice loosehead props and thus their scrum comes into focus. They must hold on sufficiently to give the rest of their game a chance.
Whoever Jones picks at No1 he is going to have a very inexperienced player in a position that demands experience as much as talent and strength. It will be the steepest of learning curves in the hardest unit on the pitch. Kyle Sinckler, as tighthead, is going to need the scrummaging game of his life to anchor the England eight. His technique has improved markedly over his career but he is, even now, not usually dominant. All his primary efforts have to be directed to the set-piece which, as a result, could make his ball-carrying less effective when England have fewer carriers than they need.
South Africa are boosted by the return of lock Lood de Jager, after he missed the entire 2018 southern hemisphere international season due to injury. In combination with de Jager, Eben Etzebeth makes up a heavy, hard-working unit in the tight and destructive one at the breakdown. Not only do they put power through the scrum, watch the contribution they make around the field carrying the ball and clearing rucks to create quick ball.
In the back row Duane Vermeulen, the No 8, returns refreshed after being rested for the Rugby Championship and with him South Africa gain a devastating runner and winner of turnover ball. Contrast the position for England at No8 and you see another battle in which they will do well to get parity.
This game will set the context for the rest of the autumn series and England have to step up physically. If they do not, it will be a hard few weeks.