Austin Healey I am backing Tuilagi to come off the bench and win it for England
England coach seems to want a high-tempo game in which the Boks are run off their feet
Icannot remember the last time I have been simultaneously so fearful and yet so hopeful around an England team selection. One reading of it is that Eddie Jones has potentially left his side severely underpowered against the most powerful team in world rugby; alternatively, he might be on the cusp of solving the two biggest problems that have plagued English rugby in the past 15 years.
First, my fears. Clearly, the risk is that the South African pack destroy England up front. The pack look lightweight in comparison to the Springboks, particularly in the back row. I thought we would have seen Maro Itoje at blind side with Charlie Ewels in the second row or even Elliott Stooke, not a flash player but just a hard, solid lump which is exactly what you need against South Africa.
Instead, he has gone for Brad Shields, who has not been overly impressive since joining Wasps. In a team who have had all manner of defensive problems – Shields seems to be involved in several of them – sometimes as a new player that can be because of a clash of styles. Ben Te’o comes straight in at inside centre off the back of zero minutes, a selection I find all the more puzzling when Manu Tuilagi is finally match fit. But it does not matter who is in the back line if South Africa are destroying England up front. The scrum is the bedrock of the South African mindset and if they get on the front foot then they are a different team, particularly with the freedom it gives their backs.
At prop, Jones has gone for the superior ball-carriers in Alec Hepburn and Kyle Sinckler over the stronger scrummagers in Ben Moon and Harry Williams. They are going to be under huge pressure.
Smashed in the scrum, back row getting run over, backs cannot get in the game, lose by 20 points – that is the worst-case scenario. If England attempt to go toe to toe with the Boks that is probably what will happen. Yet I think the team selection is a clear attempt to make this a super high-tempo contest and to run the Boks off their feet. It will be like watching a cheetah fight a lion. If the cheetah can tire the lion out with its speed then it has a chance, but if the lion gets the cheetah in its jaws then it is game over.
You will be able to tell the result by the state of England’s shirts at full time. If they are all caked in mud and blood, as is usually the case when you play South Africa, then you know the Springboks will have succeeded in making the game a physical, horrible and nasty arm wrestle. Conversely, if they are still relatively clean then Jones’s plan might have worked.
But what I really like about Jones’s selection is how well balanced the team appear. The midfield combination of Owen Farrell, Te’o and Henry Slade has all the right ingredients. Even Shields, Tom Curry and Mark Wilson has a good feel to it in a back row with a grafter, jackaler and ball-carrier.
Since 2003, the two biggest problems facing England coaches have been at open side and the balance of the midfield. In Curry, England might just have their next Neil Back. I have been impressed with how he has come on over the past 12 months, particularly physically, and he had a superb series against South Africa. Can he now back that up four weeks running at Twickenham? If he performs well and displays durability then he can become the next big star of English rugby.
In midfield, too, we know Farrell is world class, but can Te’o provide that power at inside centre and can Slade really kick on outside him? No defeat at Twickenham is ever acceptable for an England team, but if you find the right balance in the back row and midfield to take you to the World Cup, are two defeats this autumn a price worth paying?
As an eternal pessimist,
I fear the worst. Without Faf de Klerk and Willie le Roux, I think England should be favourites, but I have changed my mind several times about the result. I just have a feeling that we could see Tuilagi come off the bench to turn the game.