Clubs face dilemma whether to rest best players after Tests

Exeter omitted England internationals, Leicester did not – but both were made to pay high price

If you are going to bet on rugby matches, there are some weekends on which it is better to do so than others. The weekend after players return from a prolonged break on international duties is not one of them. Not only do you not know which players will be required to play straight away and which will be rested, you also have no clue as to what form they will show if they are picked.

For directors of rugby it is a difficult balance. You need to weigh up the short-term benefits of having your best players return immediately against the longerterm need for them to rest. This decision is very much one in which outcome bias looms – win and you were right; lose and everybody says you should have done whatever you didn’t.

Rob Baxter, Exeter’s director of rugby, decided to rest his England players, presenting an unlikely opportunity to Harlequins to take advantage of the absences and they duly won last Friday. Exeter’s eight-game winning streak ended and I suppose when Baxter looked at the table it was the right time of the season at which to take the gamble. What he must hope is that when he looks back at the table at the end of the season the loss is not the difference between finishing in the top two and the play-offs.

Danny Care and Mike Brown, two England players fighting for their places in the national squad, had much to prove to Eddie Jones, the England coach, and Brown, in particular, gave a timely reminder of his ability.

Brown’s fashioning of chances for other players is one area of his game that has drawn criticism, but he had a hand in two Quins tries and is a quality player who has never let England down. The scrap for the national No15 jersey will go to the wire and I wouldn’t hazard more than a token bet against Brown, yet again, forcing his way back into the England team.

For Paul Gustard, the Quins head of rugby, the team could not do without their England complement and he should be pleased that Kyle Sinckler returned with the confidence that comes after an outstanding autumn international series, in which he showed that he is more than a bit-part player. To a certain extent Quins’ fifth position in the table flatters them; they still have many areas in which to improve. Though the confidence that comes from beating top sides such as Exeter should not be dismissed, it remains Quins’ form on the road that needs to improve.

Saracens, perhaps surprisingly, felt the need to press their international contingent into action and the fact that they were facing Wasps no doubt contributed to this decision. In the end the gulf between the two sides on the pitch, as opposed to the teamsheet, was apparent. It was a comfortable win for Saracens and Wasps, for all their offensive armoury, failed to cross Sarries’ line. What Wasps director of rugby, Dai Young, wouldn’t give for a few pounds of Sarries consistency and for his charges to cut out the many basic errors that undermined their best efforts throughout the match.

For an example of how the return of your superstars can go wrong look no further than Leicester’s 41-10 loss away at Bristol. True, this was influenced by the dismissal of Tigers’ Kyle Eastmond for a high tackle early on. However, when you look at the fact that they have a reputation for a cussedness that is well deserved, you do not expect a team with so many star players to implode as Tigers did.

Baxter must hope the loss is not the difference between finishing in top two and the play-offs

What must worry their head coach, Geordan Murphy, is that save for brief periods of fluency, the Tigers have been a far cry from their old ruggedness. They used to be a team who, come what may, would be difficult to play against – that is no longer true.

For Ben Youngs and George Ford, England’s number one half-back pairing, to have so little control is flabbergasting. Not only that, their pack is no longer one that others fear. The sight of Dan Cole wearing his weary expression of innocence at each penalty he concedes is painful. The thing is, if you side with Cole you also have to believe that there has been a career-long conspiracy against him by club and international referees alike. That or the Leicester prop must have a hard and honest look at himself and admit that for too long he has given away too many penalties.

Cole still has the talent to force his way into the 2019 World Cup squad but not without a major change in attitude. The same could be said of many Tigers players.