Ireland feeling
Team’s confidence hit ahead of Scotland clash Ankle injury rules Toner out of rest of Six Nations
In the immediate aftermath of Ireland’s emphatic defeat in Dublin last Saturday, stunned captain Rory Best mused aloud on the nature of their loss. Was their physical Armageddon against a muscled-up England simply a “road bump”, he wondered, or a taste of things to come? Meanwhile, everyone has spoken about how England have established a template of how to beat Ireland.
The bare bones of England’s success are fairly simple. With the ball they ran straight and worked the ball around Ireland’s narrow defence. Without it they turned Ireland’s line-out into a mess, slowed their breakdown ball, refused to commit more than two men to rucks. They also doubletackled ball-carriers and went after runners from deep with a line speed and aggression that produced 48 dominant tackles to Ireland’s seven, the defining statistic of this epic encounter.
But what if you do not have the weapons that England deployed in Dublin? What if your strengths are a world away from the relentlessly confrontational model that Eddie Jones employed?
Just as no one would suggest the only way the All Blacks could beat Ireland would be to adopt England’s template, so Scotland captain Greig Laidlaw said his side would not follow where England led.
“We’re certainly not going to go out and try to play like England,” he said. “We’re going to play like Scotland. We’ve got to back ourselves in what we do – and everybody’s got to buy into it.”
Scotland have not lost at Murrayfield in the Six Nations for more than three years, and have won three of the past four home matches against Ireland.
That record has not been achieved by employing the bludgeon rather than the rapier. Two years ago, a Vern Cotter Scotland side who were whitewashed the previous season first disoriented and then overwhelmed Joe Schmidt’s men at Murrayfield.
Stuart Hogg scored two firstquarter tries before a cute line-out play resulted in Alex Dunbar diving between the two posts to give them a 21-5 half-time lead that they converted into a 27-22 victory.
Last year in Dublin, Scotland butchered three clear chances, while Peter Horne threw an interception pass to Jacob Stockdale.
The visitors lost 28-8, but both Gregor Townsend and Schmidt accepted the scoreline did not tell the story of the game and that it could have ended differently.
Scotland, at their best, have beaten Ireland when they have avoided being dragged into a war of attrition and have got the ball wide into those areas that England managed to exploit last week.
Laidlaw knows that, above all, Scotland must move the ball away from contact briskly, keep the tempo relentlessly high, and ensure they do not end up slugging it out in the trenches.
“Ireland will be looking to right a few wrongs, so it’s going to be a physical battle,” he said. “They will be hurting from England winning the physical battle, so that will be tough for us.”
As they were two years ago, the opening exchanges will be key for the Scots.
If they can stay in the game and begin to drag the Irish pack around the park, they will fancy their chances of beating an Ireland side the bookmakers believe will be six points better than Scotland this afternoon.
The expected strong wind will help by making Conor Murray’s box-kicking less accurate, and in any case Sean Maitland and Tommy Seymour, in particular, are exceptional under the high ball.
With the ball in hand, Scotland have become increasingly adept at controlling and mixing play. Finn Russell was in exceptional form last week, and has got used to dealing with big, ultra-physical back rows in the Top 14.
Sam Johnson’s lines from inside centre give him a good way to keep the Irish looseheads honest, while outside centre Huw Jones is always a danger with ball in hand. Scotland’s experienced, yet quick, back three have scored a phenomenal 47 Test tries between them. Dropping last week’s hat-trick scorer Blair Kinghorn to the bench, Townsend has stuck with experience, which Laidlaw believes will be crucial in what should be a tight game.
“I think the key is us being up for that first 20 minutes,” said Laidlaw.
“We need to be disciplined and stay in the kick battle. Don’t play too early if it’s not on, but if it’s on, we go and take our opportunity. It’s going to be part of the challenge, just choosing where to play.
“We’ve matured a lot in the last 12 months, and bringing Sean Maitland back into the team is a real positive, because he’s a big player who’s got so much experience. “Finn has really stepped up and added levels to that side of his game. That experience will be vital because we need these guys to give us direction – and to not panic when the game is tight.” Rory Best admits Ireland are feeling the pressure ahead of facing Scotland at Murrayfield today, with a sense within the camp that everyone is “waiting with bated breath” to see if they will slip up again.
It felt like a very different Best who faced the media yesterday to the one who sat down in Dublin last Friday and spoke of the importance of making a fast start in this Guinness Six Nations.
Then, Ireland’s captain was trying to project an aura of confidence; respectful of the threat posed by England, certainly, but sure that his team, the 2018 grand slam champions and conquerors of the All Blacks, would prevail.
The bruising nature of last Saturday’s 32-20 defeat has clearly had a big effect, both in terms of confidence and personnel.
Joe Schmidt has been forced into making five changes, with one of those, Sean O’brien, who has replaced Josh van der Flier, himself a doubt now.
The British and Irish Lion, who has reportedly agreed a deal with London Irish for next season, sat out the captain’s run yesterday for unexplained reasons.
While there was uncertainty over O’brien, there was clarity on Devin Toner. But it was not the sort of clarity Ireland fans would have wanted. The giant lock, who rolled an ankle last weekend, has under-