Success will depend on potency of big carriers
Wales are deservedly No1 team in the world rankings but margins are fine as Japan beckons
Congratulations to Wales for the second ascension to No 1-ranked team in the world. What does that mean? – virtually nothing in terms of the forthcoming World Cup, but it is a mighty achievement nonetheless.
Before Wales v England, a quick mention of France’s unexpectedly easy win over Scotland. When no less a person than former France captain Olivier Magne says he cannot tell you because he is not a psychiatrist, you are on fairly safe ground trotting out the cliched, but nevertheless true, point of how do you know which France will turn up?
France look to be picking most of their best backs and picking them in their proper positions. Add their powerful forwards and they could beat England in their pool, if Eddie Jones’s team are not at something very near their best.
If there is a major doubt, apart from unpredictability, you wonder whether France’s pack is sufficiently mobile to last games played in high temperatures and at pace.
As far as Scotland are concerned, they looked worryingly unfamiliar with each other. However, with the number of players returning from long/medium-term injuries the squad and starting XV were always going to take time to recalibrate. If their next performance is as tepid
Biggar has a huge expanse of space to aim for.
It is naive by Joe Cokanasiga and ineffective, more searching questions might need asking but for now, don’t panic.
In Cardiff, Wales edged a fairly dour contest and although their coach, Warren Gatland, will have been pleased with the win, I suspect it will be Jones, his England counterpart, who is slightly more satisfied with the net outcome from their two warm-up games.
England started both games with far fewer players that will be first choice in Japan and won one game handsomely and narrowly lost the other. Wales had a far more experienced and fuller strength team and remain difficult to score against. What should concern Welsh fans is that in an almost totally dominant first half they scored only one try and only partially threatened the English line in the second half.
I suspect it will be Jones who is more satisfied with the net outcome from the two games
Going forward you wonder whether they have the overall scoring capacity to beat all their challengers. Can you say with confidence they could come back from the sort of poor start they had at Twickenham? And can you survive the tightest of games if your scrum is under significant pressure? We will see.
For England, there were familiar problems and one major rugby lesson to learn.
Too many penalties; how many times have we said this. In the last three games against Wales, an average of one penalty given away every eight minutes is not a winning formula and that includes the Twickenham game, where they were comfortably on top for most of the match. Breakdown penalties can to leave his opposite number so isolated. Although Jonathan Joseph identifies the danger, England are in trouble when Adams gathers be arguable, but whatever you think of the official’s interpretations, you have to define them and adapt.
The second familiar problem concerns driving line-out ball. Though they have improved, England are not as good as they need to be at this skill that features in probably two out of three games and has proved on many occasions to be the seminal play of a game.
The set-up of the maul is at fault and the tightness of the initial three and next supporting row of players is insufficient. If you want to drive the ball, either throw it to the middle or preferably further back. Defending players have further to run and your players should be a yard quicker because they know where the ball is going.
Throwing to the back also means at least one defender is likely to stay out of the maul as there is a bigger blind side to defend.
The major rugby lesson is a schoolboy one – never switch off when you concede a free-kick or penalty. Wales were sharp and England dull when Anthony Watson was shown the yellow card. Getting completely lost in defence will be enough to end England’s chances in a knockout game and must not happen again.
With regard to the decision, your view will be entirely coloured by your allegiance but the more important point is that this is an offence, like late tackles, that should be reviewed in real time as slow motion gives an unrealistic view of what happened.
Finally, though England ended the Wales game with something closer to their first XV, fans should note that the way they play they need all their ball carriers to start for them to be fully effective.
Mako Vunipola, Kyle Sinckler, Manu Tuilagi, George Kruis and Jamie George complete a very potent set of line-breaking players and I suspect England’s ultimate fate in the World Cup will hinge on the form and availability of their big carriers. the kick. The backs plus Courtney Lawes and Lewis Ludlam scramble well enough to stop Jonathan Davies, who latches on to an offload from Adams. However, England are left vulnerable.
Daly and Cokanasiga remain close to the next ruck, and all of their front-five forwards are left side by side. Joe Launchbury, barely beyond the goal-post, is the widest England defender in the absence of Watson.
North and Ken Owens have, like Adams before them, held their width. A second Biggar kickpass unlocks England.