As Kane slows down, will the goals dry up?
His shots are now coming from positions in which he is less likely to score
stepovers and ran at defenders, Ronaldo morphed into the ultimate physical specimen.
All the while he has scored relentlessly for well over a decade, his game developing from a lethal counter-attacking force at Manchester United into an unstoppable goal machine at Real Madrid with a frankly ludicrous physique for a footballer.
It would not be a surprise if Kane had decided to model his career on Ronaldo’s in the hope of emulating his goal-scoring. They are not particularly similar players, but Kane already seems to have lost a yard of pace in the past few seasons and maybe he sees Ronaldo’s transformation as a helpful guide for his own future.
Kane has suffered with a series of ankle injuries over the past few seasons, and the bulkier frame he now possesses may be in some part a result of him wanting to prevent further knocks in future. But he also might reasonably have thought that getting that bit bigger was the natural continuation of his development. It has led this season to Kane being called out for sluggishness in possession.
He is a different sort of striker to the one who scored 30 Premier League goals two seasons ago, now playing as part of a front two for Spurs and invariably the one who drops deeper to look for the ball to feet while the electric Son Heung-min flies in behind.
Kane used to do far more of that. He was caught offside 1.1 times per game on average in that 30-goal 2017-18 season. That number dropped to 0.36 per game last season and has fallen further, to 0.25 per game, this campaign, pointing at less adventure.
The goal he scored at the Emirates in 2015, when he was put through by Danny Rose in the space vacated by right-back Mathieu Debuchy was a long, lost memory when Kane had the chance to run at Sokratis in the 93rd minute of Sunday’s derby. The previous 92 minutes of football had obviously taken their toll, but nevertheless a sharper Kane would have shifted the ball to one side and shot, or even worked half a yard and crossed for the advancing Giovani Lo Celso for a tap in. Instead, he got his body between defender and ball and looked to win a penalty. It felt like an admission that right now he just is not as sharp as he can be.
His goal threat has lessened, with 0.28 expected goals per 90 minutes (excluding penalties) this season. We are only four games in but that is by a distance his lowest rate at Spurs, in spite of the fact that almost 11 per cent of his touches this season have been shots – his second highest rate.
This all suggests that Kane’s shots are now coming from positions in which he is less likely to score. Or in other words, further from goal.
More and more, he is dropping into deeper positions to try and get involved in play when the game is passing him by further up the field – something Ronaldo would simply never countenance, and which has not brought much impact this term.
Perhaps this change will benefit Kane later in his career. You have to wonder how long players like Son and Lucas Moura, who rely on their pace, will remain at the top of the game. Maybe Kane has shown great foresight in adapting early.
Given that we are only four games in to the season and Kane has two goals in open play, it would be harsh to start writing him off. But for now at least, this latest version of Harry Kane is not quite working. There is more than a bit of fine tuning that needs to be done.