England hold most of the aces among home nations
Powerful group of players and recent form gives Jones’ squad more of a chance in Japan than Six Nations rivals
Conflicting aims mean pre-tournament games are always like this – moments of form, interspersed with incoherence. In camp you graft hard to ensure sharpness later in the competition, but you also want to be competitive in Tests. Bad losses bring bad moods and pressure, but you do not want unrealistic levity from wins against weakened opponents. Atop all this, you do not want major injuries to key players. Bearing this in mind, some home unions did better than others
In terms of performances, England had more periods of sustained good play than anyone else and did not come near to picking their starting XV.
Injuries to Mako Vunipola and Henry Slade will not seriously hamper their campaign, provided the medical staff are right about when they will be fit.
World Cups are as tight as this – if either player is not going to be fit by the third pool game you probably should not take them. Just one week can make a huge difference when you are having to juggle your squad to deal with in-tournament casualties.
Taking only two scrum-halves is still a concern, but that is a call Eddie Jones has made and he will
stand or fall by it. He can take out another No9, but that replacement will not have had game time and we are considering a very specialist position here; you cannot just stick someone in who can fashion a half-decent pass.
Without getting out his full complement of ball carriers Jones has seen the difference just one or two extra handlers can make. He is going to have to choose between the set-piece solidity brought by Joe Marler and Dan Cole, and the dynamism of Mako Vunipola and Kyle Sinckler.
If you start with solidity you have something in reserve, but by that time the game might have been lost. If you start the other way round, you might blow away your opponents but, if not, what is left that has the X-factor? That said, a team that could feature Jonny May, Joe Cokanasiga, Manu Tuilagi, Courtney Lawes, George Kruis, Maro Itoje, Jamie George, Sinckler and both Vunipola brothers has the power to unsettle any defence. Add the pace of Elliot Daly, Anthony Watson and Slade, and England are in a good place, provided they all stay fit. That factor, more than any other, could be definitive in deciding England’s ultimate position in Japan.
They cannot face New Zealand or South Africa before the semi-final and they are the equal of any other opponent they could face.
When you bear in mind that Scotland are still trying to accommodate all their recently injured players, disjointed performances are no more than you could expect. They need to play high-risk, attacking rugby, but only time will tell whether they can achieve the necessary familiarity by the time they face their big pool games. If they do, it does not get any easier, with either the Kiwis or the Boks in the quarter-finals. Hope and pray is the best policy for Scottish fans.
Ireland and Wales are in similar positions. Playing well, both are difficult to score against, but neither team have shown the ability to cut loose and score several tries quickly. They play with patience and accuracy around the breakdown, but there remain question marks about the number of players who can make hard yards over the gain line and turn set-piece ball into dynamic second-phase possession. Keeping the ball through 20 phases is usually enough to force mistakes and create try-scoring opportunities or penalties, but only if defences eventually crumble.
Ireland need players such as CJ Stander to be on top form because without this they will struggle to get on the front foot, and they do not have many other options to create momentum.
Their legendary kick-and-chase strategies depend on their half-backs rediscovering the sort of form that they showed 18 months ago. You cannot say, thus far, that it is certain to return and, without it, Ireland will not be able to dictate possession and territory.
The loss of Gareth Anscombe is a big blow for Wales as it has robbed them of a creative player and further limits their options going forward. They will also miss the power of Taulupe Faletau, a genuine ball carrier.
Games against tier-one opponents will be tight and can be won or lost by a moment of madness/brilliance or, God forbid, one refereeing decision.
And, as a final aside, don’t expect them to be very exciting; tense they may be, but not thrilling.
After so many years of decrying England’s lack of creativity, Irish and Welsh fans now seem happy with “English-style” efficiency and attrition, provided they win. Then again, winning is all that matters at World Cups.
Neither Ireland nor Wales have shown the ability to cut loose and score several tries quickly