The big bets
The new one-leg format for the final stages of the Champions League and Europa League has resulted in some thrilling matches and we can expect more of the same as the tournaments reach their conclusions.
Two English teams remain in European football’s main competitions, with Manchester City facing Lyon in the Champions League quarter-finals tonight and Manchester United squaring off against Sevilla in the semi-finals of the Europa League tomorrow.
Both sides are heavy favourites to win in 90 minutes, with City priced at 1/4 and United available at 6/4.
United are clearly the more vulnerable of the English teams according to the market, and it is worth backing Sevilla to knock out Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side at 2/1.
Sevilla dominated their quarterfinal against Wolverhampton Wanderers after Raul Jimenez had missed an early penalty and were full value for their 1-0 victory.
The Spanish side finished fourth in La Liga with the same number of points as third-placed Atletico Madrid and their success this season has been built on a solid defence.
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in eight of their past 11 matches, including in games against Barcelona in the league and Roma and Wolves in the Europa League. They will be confident of keeping things tight against a United side who struggled to beat a vastly inferior FC Copenhagen in the quarter-finals.
That was largely down to a fantastic performance by Copenhagen goalkeeper Karl-johan Johnsson, but United’s forwards were wasteful and their poor finishing must be
Tough nut to crack: Sevilla, who face Manchester United in Cologne tomorrow, beat Wolves in their Europa League quarter-final a concern, given they will get far fewer chances against such a solid Sevilla back line.
Since the restart, United have also struggled defensively, keeping clean sheets in only six of their 13 matches. Three of those came against struggling Premier League teams Brighton, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, with another against Leicester, who were one of the worst-performing teams in the division after football’s resumption.
So, given United’s attacking profligacy and a back five struggling to keep teams out, it could also be worth backing Sevilla to win to nil at odds of 7/2, if you think the 2/1 about them winning in 90 minutes is too skinny.
City should have too much for Lyon, who have played just two competitive matches in five months after the cancellation of Ligue 1.
They were outplayed and extremely fortunate to come through a tough Champions League quarter-final on away goals against Juventus.
Sevilla to beat Manchester United
Sevilla to win to nil
Their fitness levels must be in question given the lack of competition and they face a tough task against City, who are now clear favourites to win the Champions League.
City were impressive when beating 13-time winners Real Madrid 2-1 in the second leg of their quarter-final last week and they should have a fitness edge over their French opponents.
The 1/4 to win in 90 minutes is too skinny, but Pep Guardiola’s team have scored in the first half of five of their eight Champions League matches, including against Real Madrid at the Etihad Stadium, and it might pay to chance them making another quick start.
The 4/5 about Manchester City being in front at half-time and full time makes some appeal, while Ilkay Gundogan could be worth backing at 10/1 to score first and 7/2 to score at any time. He has scored two goals this season, both of which have come in the Champions League.