Football nerd

Pierre-emerick Aubameyang is frequently described as a “lethal finisher”, but for much of his career that was not quite true.

While he has always scored goals, the way he scores them has changed since he arrived at Arsenal in January 2018. At Borussia Dortmund his key attribute was his ability to sniff out high-quality chances thanks to his exceptional movement. This was reflected in very strong expected goals numbers which he often slightly underperformed.

At Arsenal, those expected goals numbers have declined gradually. In the first half of the Bundesliga’s 2017-18 season, Aubameyang recorded 0.96 xg

per 90 minutes but had slumped to 0.45 xg per 90 last season. In short, the striker is not getting in as many high-value goalscoring positions as he used to.

However, he is outperforming his expected goals numbers by finishing harder chances spectacularly. His curling strike at Fulham last Saturday was a fine example, an opportunity with an xg value of just 0.4. Last season Aubameyang scored 22 Premier League goals from an xg tally of 15.8.

Could his declining numbers indicate that Father Time is waiting to tap the 31-year-old on the shoulder?

The good news for Arsenal fans is there is mitigation for this trend. Aubameyang played in an Arsenal team last season who finished with a negative expected goals difference and were 11th for shots on target.

To the naked eye, Aubameyang is getting better and better but to keep scoring goals at his current rate Arsenal need to boost his underlying numbers by creating more.