Fulham can bring Leeds back to earth in battle of the top-flight newcomers
Wolves have what it takes to expose City’s frailty on the road Rayong in right form to lift Ayr Gold Cup for trainer Burke
It is always interesting to watch how social and mainstream media react to the first weekend of the Premier League season, and there was one team widely lauded.
The cliches were out in full force, with Leeds United being “a welcome addition to the Premier League” and “certain to cause teams problems this season” after losing a 4-3 thriller at Liverpool last Saturday.
However, it is worth pointing out that those same phrases were rolled out after Norwich City performed well and created plenty of chances in a 4-1 defeat at Anfield last season, before they went on to win just two of their next 12 matches in all competitions and finish adrift at the bottom of the league.
Just a point separated Leeds and Norwich in their respective Championship-winning seasons and there are similarities in their style, with both getting players forward and committing to an attacking philosophy.
Interestingly, Norwich beat Manchester City early last season, but they were thrashed at Carrow Road by Aston Villa and suffered a string of poor home defeats and Leeds could also be a team whose style translates well against the bigger teams of the division, but then struggle for space against some of the more defensive sides.
With that in mind, it might be worth taking a chance that the market has overreacted to Leeds’s opening Premier League performance and newly-promoted Fulham could be overpriced to win at Elland Road this afternoon at odds of 19/4.
Scott Parker’s Fulham side were soundly beaten 3-0 by an improving Arsenal last weekend, but they played well in two Championship matches against Leeds last season, beating them 2-1 at Craven Cottage before Leeds were flattered in a 3-0 win at Elland Road ( Fulham had more possession and more shots on target in that match).
That suggests there is not as much between these teams as the odds suggest and Fulham could be value to register their first Premier League success of the season.
I am also hoping for another big shock as I think Wolves are a huge price at 5/1 to win at home to Manchester City on Monday.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side looked good in a 2-0 win at Sheffield United last Monday under different tactics than were employed last season, and that is a good thing as teams had appeared to work out how to stop Wolves recently.
It is worth remembering that Wolves had a fantastic record against Manchester City last season, winning both league matches, and City’s poor away record will need to improve if they are to challenge for the title.
City lost seven matches away from home and the signing of Nathan Ake does not inspire confidence that the defence will be more solid on the road than last season. An ageing Fernandinho must surely be on the decline at 35 and striker Sergio Aguero is spending increasingly long on the sidelines with injury.
Who knows quite how prepared City are for this match, which is why the 5/1 about a win for them looks too big to ignore.
There is plenty of top horseracing action around Britain, with five meetings in total, the pick of them being in Scotland, where Ayr stages its historic Gold Cup meeting.
The famous event is one of the biggest betting races of the year and features 25 runners sprinting their way up the Ayr straight.
I love trying to solve these bigfield handicaps and I will be backing Rayong at 16/1. He has been performing well this season, coming out best of those drawn low in a hot handicap at Royal Ascot and following up with a decent win at Pontefract.
He disappointed at Chester last time, but that track does not suit every horse, while he will also be suited by the likely faster conditions at Ayr this afternoon (3.40).
Trainer Karl Burke and jockey Ben Curtis have teamed up to win more than £1 million in prize money in their careers and they can pick up another valuable pot here.