Leicester can defy injury list to push Brighton deeper into relegation fight
➤ City likely to win derby with United missing key man Pogba ➤ Burnley available at big price to shock unpredictable Arsenal
It was not too long ago that the Premier League looked set to provide a tight finish at the top and an unexciting conclusion at the foot of the table.
That all changed in February, with Manchester City pulling clear at the summit, while Fulham’s recent run of just four defeats in 17 matches in all competitions means they have closed to within three points of Newcastle United and Brighton & Hove Albion.
Newcastle United fans will be fearing the worst, given that injuries to key players Callum Wilson, Miguel Almiron and Allan Saintmaximin will result in them entering the closing months of the season without their three best performers and their match against West Bromwich Albion tomorrow will go some way to formulating ideas of where both teams are likely to finish.
Brighton have caused plenty of debate in recent weeks, with their underlying stats suggesting that they are a far better team than their league position of 16th implies, but it still surprises me that they have been made favourites at 13/8 to win at home against Leicester City tonight.
Graham Potter’s side have won just once at home this season and are taking on a team who have lost just once on their travels and are ideally set up to counter-attack quickly, something Brighton struggle to deal with.
Leicester have also been hit by injuries – Harvey Barnes and Jonny Evans the latest to be ruled out – but there is still plenty of quality in the squad and I would always rather side with a team who know how to win rather than one struggling for points, so I will be taking the 9/5 that Leicester can win their 10th away league match of the season.
The Manchester derby is usually a must-watch but most of the people tuning in tomorrow will be expecting the blue half of the city to provide most of the entertainment.
Manchester United have drawn their past three matches 0-0 but their supporters will be clinging to the comfort that they are the only team in the division who have yet to lose away.
It is worth noting that United are the only team in the top four divisions of English football, La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1, to be unbeaten away from home at this stage of the season, which is some achievement, but they have struggled to find the net of late.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side have scored more than one goal in just one of their past seven away matches and, in their neighbours, are taking on the team who have by far the best defensive record in the league.
United’s lack of goals has coincided with an injury to Paul Pogba and his absence is maybe more keenly felt than it appears at first glance, with Bruno Fernandes forced to do even more to create chances.
With that in mind, it is difficult to see United winning the game at odds of 5/1, especially as Manchester City have also had an extra day’s rest this week, so it could pay to look at how City will win the match.
City have scored in the first half of 10 of their past 11 games so will pile on the pressure early
Pep Guardiola’s side have scored in the first half of 10 of their past 11 matches, including in the Champions League and in matches against Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal and West Ham United, so they will be expected to pile on the pressure early and it may be worth taking a chance on City to be leading at half-time/full time at odds of 27/20.
I usually like to put a team up at a big price in this column and this week it is Burnley at 9/2 to beat Arsenal.
Arsenal defeated Leicester in their last away league match but had previously lost to Aston Villa and Wolves and they sometimes flatter to deceive. Burnley have also been inconsistent but are capable of winning this on their best day.