Kane can break Shearer record and become Premier League’s top scorer

The Tottenham striker has hit the target 159 times in the league and requires another 102 goals to create history

How does Harry Kane currently compare to Alan Shearer?

Kane goes into his 15th north London derby on 159 Premier League goals, 101 behind Shearer, having netted 16 times this season. With 11 games left for Tottenham, it is reasonable to guess he could finish his eighth season in the top flight with 23 goals, leaving him with 10 fewer than Shearer after eight seasons.

How and when can Kane overtake Shearer?*

This is the tricky bit. At the end of his eighth Premier League campaign, Shearer had averaged 22 goals a season, while Kane – assuming he scores 23 this term – will have an average of 20.75.

But Shearer was 29, two years older than Kane, at the end of his eighth season and, over the next six seasons before retirement, his goalsper-season average dropped to 14.

Accounting for the fact that Kane, 27, is two years younger, and that his ankle problems suggest he will miss periods through injury, we have made a guess that Kane’s goals average will drop to 16 per season over the next six campaigns.

At this rate, Kane would finish the 2026-27 season with 262 goals – two more than Shearer’s record – meaning he could become the all-time leading Premier League scorer aged 33, two years younger than Shearer was when he retired.

It should be noted Shearer also scored 23 top-flight goals for Southampton before the formation of the Premier League and his move to Blackburn Rovers, making his overall top-flight total 283.

Could Kane reach 300 Premier League goals?*

It is entirely plausible to calculate that, aged 35 and at the end of the 2028-29 season, the England captain will have reached 282 goals. That factors in another possible drop in Kane’s goals-per-season average to 10 between the ages of 33 and 35.

This would leave Kane needing 18 goals to hit 300 and that would surely act as a target to keep going. Even if his goals-per-season average fell to six, he could achieve the milestone aged 38 in the 2031-32 season.

A look at some of the most famous goalscorers to have played under Kane’s current head coach, Jose Mourinho, suggests time is some way from catching up with Tottenham’s star man.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic is still going strong at AC Milan aged 39, while Cristiano Ronaldo is not showing too much sign of slowing down aged 36 at Juventus. Didier Drogba did not retire until he was 40 and the

Ivorian was 36 when Mourinho signed him for a second spell at Chelsea. Frank Lampard and Samuel Eto’o both kept going until they were 38.

Unlike strikers such as Wayne Rooney and Michael Owen, who shot to stardom in their teens, Kane did not start his first Premier League match for Tottenham until he was 20. That would suggest that, as long as he can continue to manage his ankles, Kane should not suffer any early burnout.

What they say

Kane: “260 goals is there in gold at the top. It’s still a long way away but, yeah, it’s definitely reachable if I stay fit, keep doing what I do and keep working hard.”

Mourinho: “The kind of players [like Harry], I think they get better with time, with experience, with understanding of the game. At this moment you see Harry and [Karim] Benzema, who’s already 33 now, this kind of striker. They’re very intelligent, so they can drop back and assist, transform their game. Later in their career, instead of being the No9 target, they become a nineand-a-half, between a nine and a 10. And they can play football until they want.”

Tim Sherwood (a title winner as a player at Blackburn with Shearer and gave Kane his Premier League debut): “Harry’s got that same mentality that Shearer had, that there is never a wasted day on the training ground and it’s all about goals. As long as he stays in England and stays fit, Harry will definitely break the record.”