Why experience of champion could be decisive in run-in
Two new circuits in last six races add unknown element to predicting final outcome – and Dutchman is a formidable foe United States – Hamilton win
With five wins from six races in the turbo hybrid era, the Circuit of the Americas has historically been a stronghold for Mercedes. With the cars so evenly matched this year, it is not easy to pick a winner on a circuit that offers a fairly balanced mix of high-speed corners, long straights (which, in theory, should favour Mercedes) and twistier sections (which should favour Red Bull). If you had to stake your mortgage on one team, though, it would be Mercedes, given their upturn in performance since the summer break and their record at the track.
Mexico – Verstappen win
Big Red Bull track. Or so the theory goes. At an altitude of nearly 2,300metres – the highest of any F1 circuit on the calendar – the idea is that the thin air suits Red Bull’s Honda engine better than the Mercedes engine (this is because the turbo is having to work harder to compress the air, and the Honda turbo is slightly smaller than the Mercedes turbo, making it easier to get up to the required rev levels needed to maximise this). Mercedes’ aero-efficiency advantage is also less pronounced at altitude. Max Verstappen was victorious in two of his past three outings here.
Brazil – Verstappen win
Another tough one to call as the circuit is fairly well-balanced, with the twisty infield favouring the higher downforce of Red Bull and the long drag from Juncao up the hill to the start-finish straight and then all the way down to turn one more likely to suit Mercedes. Probably the biggest factor will be the local conditions, with torrential downpours a perennial threat. Which team will be smarter on the day? Which driver will make the most of the conditions? Perhaps you would just give this one to Red Bull on the basis that it is another “altitude” circuit. Only 800m, but every little helps.
Qatar – Verstappen win
The first of two new circuits in the final three races. It might just favour Red Bull, thanks to its proliferation of medium and high-speed corners. But no one really knows. Local conditions, air density, track temperatures, grip levels… teams do not have much data to go on, so all will be revealed in practice.
Again, this will be a voyage of discovery, but the Jeddah Corniche Circuit looks on paper much more likely to favour Mercedes. Although it is nominally a street circuit, it is a purpose-built one, with plenty of long flat-out stretches where Mercedes can get their engine working at 100 per cent and extract the maximum from their lower-drag car.
Abu Dhabi – Hamilton win
The seven-time champion loves this circuit. Lewis Hamilton won once here for Mclaren in 2011 and has a record of four victories from his past seven starts for Mercedes at Yas Marina. That said, Verstappen and Red Bull dominated the entire weekend here last year. Hamilton had already tied up the championship and was also recovering from a bout of Covid. One thing is certain, with overtaking so difficult, qualifying will be extremely important.
Conclusion
It should go down to the wire – assuming both drivers come through every round unscathed Saudi Arabia – Hamilton win
With only six points separating Verstappen and Hamilton, and the cars so evenly matched, on paper the 2021 season should go down to the wire. That, though, assumes both drivers come through every round unscathed. Any mistake will be magnified; any DNF, any botched pit-stop strategy, any driver error leading to a significant penalty, any contact… Hamilton, with his experience, should be better placed to handle the pressure of the run-in, but Verstappen has proved a formidable opponent this year.