Top-flight bowling and fielding on a big ground – New Zealand are a threat
England are favourites to progress to World Cup final but may need to tweak game plan against dangerous opponents
New-ball potency
New Zealand’s success in the tournament has been built on outstanding new-ball bowling, with Trent Boult and Tim Southee combining as fruitfully as they do in Tests.
England tend to favour a gallivanting approach during the first six overs. Yet against New Zealand, whose biggest chance of winning the game is snaring early wickets, a slightly more restrained start might leave England best placed to attack the spinners in the middle overs.
Bowler-heavy approach
After defeat by Pakistan in the first game, New Zealand made a crucial tactical shift. In place of Tim Seifert, who was selected as wicketkeeperbatsman at No7, they gave Devon Conway the gloves and brought in Adam Milne as an extra bowler.
The change means New Zealand have five specialist bowlers, with Jimmy Neesham’s fast-medium bowling – his array of cutters and back-of-a-length style is well suited to the UAE – in support. These options allow Kane Williamson to deploy his bowlers flexibly. Yet England would be heartened that leftarmer Mitchell Santner and leg spinner Ish Sodhi conceded 40 from their combined four overs against Afghanistan. In Dawid Malan, Moeen Ali and Eoin Morgan, England have three left-handers who can target the leg side by hitting with the spin against Santner and Sodhi.
New Zealand’s plethora of choices – Glenn Phillips can even bowl useful off-spin, providing a seventh bowling option – allows them to use Milne against batsmen who are particularly susceptible to high pace.
Middle-order slow coaches
New Zealand bat in a conservative way: essentially, minimising the risk of being bowled out cheaply because they back themselves to win if they score par. Williamson and Conway, New Zealand’s three and four, are prone to taking 15-20 balls before their strike-rates reach a run a ball.
If England use Mark Wood to attack Williamson and Conway early on, it might offer the best hope of exposing New Zealand’s relative lack of batting depth.
The ground – a leveller?
The large dimensions of the ground suit New Zealand’s style. Bigger boundaries make it harder to hit sixes, which is not New Zealand’s strength, and makes finding the gaps and running twos, in the way that Williamson and Conway did against Afghanistan, more important.
Larger dimensions also make fielding more important; New Zealand claimed three fantastic catches in the deep against Afghanistan, and have a well-deserved reputation as the tournament’s best fielding team.
The ground in Abu Dhabi is uncovered square of the wicket on both sides. The set-up can make dew a greater factor, providing that the wind stays away. On Wednesday, this could increase the importance of the toss, and the advantage of chasing. It could also hinder spin bowlers.
Unless England change the balance of their side, they will have to bowl eight overs of spin; Neesham’s fast-medium delivered four frugal overs against Afghanistan, when they bowled just four overs of spin.
None of this obscures the fact that England are favourites in the semifinal. But New Zealand may think their chances of reaching the T20 World Cup final are stronger in Abu Dhabi than anywhere else.