England face a difficult decision if Roy is ruled out
The results of a scan on the calf injury to England opener Jason Roy will be known today, but they are almost certain to confirm that his T20 World Cup is over.
The challenge for Eoin Morgan’s side, who face New Zealand in the semi-final on Wednesday, is how to adapt a side missing a player who is the standard-bearer for their philosophy as a team.
“He’s a guy who epitomises everything that we are about in the changing room and in the way that we play,” said the England captain after Roy’s injury against South Africa in Sharjah.
Reserve batsman James Vince is the obvious replacement for Roy in the squad; but who comes in for him in England’s 11 is more complicated.
The question about Roy’s replacement is tied to two broader questions: whether England want to stick to their batting-heavy balance or move to a more bowler-favoured side; and England’s strategy with the bat.
The likeliest option is that England replace Roy with another batsman – either Sam Billings or Vince. The latter would be the simplest option. He could stand in for Roy at the top of the order, so no one else would need to shuffle around.
In T20s this year alone, Vince has made consecutive 90-plus scores in the play-off and final to help Sydney Sixers win the Big Bash, excelled in the Pakistan Super League and led Southern Brave to the inaugural Hundred. He also scored a maiden international century.
Billings has very different strengths. He is an accomplished, innovative player of spin and is dangerous against pace bowling at the death. He would shuffle into England’s middle order at four or five.
Unless Vince is picked, the most likely new opening partner for Jos Buttler is Jonny Bairstow, who is almost certain to open regardless of whether England select another bowler. England’s formation of four specialist bowlers, with Moeen Ali and Liam Livingstone sharing fifth bowler duties, worked brilliantly during their first four matches, but felt a little exposed against South Africa. It was not that the fifth bowler struggled, but that, without Tymal Mills, England’s seamers appeared vulnerable.
The semi-final and final will be day-night matches. Without changing the balance of their side, England will have to bowl eight overs of spin – not ideal if they bowl second, especially at Abu Dhabi, where the ground is open and the dew is a bigger factor.
England might understandably be reluctant to replace Roy with Reece Topley, which would mean bringing in a No11 for an opener. But in David Willey and Tom Curran, England have two versatile options who are good enough batsmen to slot in at No7. Willey is outstanding with the new ball, while slow pitches might suit Curran’s style.
It remains unlikely that England will tinker with the balance of the side. England often espouse the importance of adaptability; now might be the time to show it in their team selection.