How Hamilton’s charge to eighth world title Could still be derailed
⮞c⮞ampion has faster car with two races left, but Verstappen’s aggressive tactics or an engine failure could yet scupper Briton Engine degradation
The main concern for Mercedes since the summer break has been the performance and reliability of their engines. Hamilton took new internal combustion engines in Turkey (a 10-place grid penalty) and again in Brazil (five places). Teammate Valtteri Bottas had power unitrelated penalties in Italy, Russia and the United States.
Reliability problems are expected given the component limits over a 22-race season, but the machinery Mercedes have been going through is surprising. The difficulties appear to relate to a high level of performance degradation on their engines over time (not suffered apparently by Red Bull’s Honda units).
On Sunday, team principal Toto Wolff said Lewis Hamilton would fit the “spicy” internal combustion engine used in Brazil for Saudi Arabia – a new, high-speed track that looks very power hungry – having used another from the “pool” in Qatar. In Brazil, Hamilton’s advantage on the straights at Interlagos was emphatic and the new engine would have played a part
So is Jeddah a certainty for Hamilton? Far from it. First, Wolff could be bluffing to wind up rival Christian Horner. And that “new” internal combustion engine is no longer new, so will suffer the same degradation as other units.
Hamilton presumably had to use it at a high setting to charge through the pack in Brazil, so the degradation may be even higher still.
Mercedes are trading off between track position, performance and the risk of failure. They could face difficult decisions in the next two rounds. Part of the reason victory in Qatar looked so comfortable was because Max Verstappen was too distant to be able to disrupt Hamilton because of his own grid penalty. Given their history and the state of play, Mercedes would surely prefer to avoid Hamilton sharing the same piece of track as Verstappen.
Verstappen aggression
Red Bull are being backed into a corner as Verstappen’s lead has been eroded. With Mercedes the quicker car in race trim, might Verstappen
repeat what he did in Brazil if he finds himself ahead and aggressively defend? Or in a scenario where he starts second but gets a better start than Hamilton, might he launch himself up the inside, knowing that if the Mercedes gets ahead it could be all but game over for him?
If he finds himself being chased down in Saudi Arabia or Abu Dhabi, why would he not try to run Hamilton off the road? Especially given that he has already done so in Brazil.
Throughout the season, Verstappen has been aggressive and robust when the two have come together on track. It would be strange if he suddenly changed tack with it all on the line. The possibility of Verstappen cruising to two second places behind Hamilton and taking the title has disappeared. A repeat of Senna/ Prost is looking ever more likely.
Bottas v Perez
There has been a huge distance between Verstappen and Hamilton and their respective team-mates this season, but the roles that Sergio Perez and Bottas might play could be crucial. It is unlikely that Perez or Bottas will finish ahead of either of the two championship contenders on track, but their teams will want them to be able to run close enough to make life difficult for the other team strategically.
Red Bull’s Perez looks more likely to play a decisive hand. After his fine win in Turkey, Bottas’s performances have dropped off, whereas Perez has continued to improve in qualifying and races.
The Mexican seems the better (and more willing) wheel-to-wheel fighter, too. When Perez has been in a position to fight Hamilton on track, he has done a better job than Bottas against Verstappen. In Turkey, Perez’s defending was crucial to limiting Hamilton to fifth place and, though it was not decisive in the end, the Mexican overtook the Briton immediately after losing a place to him.
Bottas has opened the door twice to Verstappen, making his life easier, not harder; first in Russia when both were coming through the field and then again at the start in Mexico when he allowed Verstappen the space for a bold move around the outside, undoing Mercedes’ frontrow start before the second corner.
Title could be decided in courts or by stewards – and both would leave a sour taste
The Abu Dhabi effect
Mercedes are clear favourites for Saudi Arabia due to its high-speed nature, but who Abu Dhabi might favour is less clear. It could well be Red Bull, who won there in 2020. It has traditionally been strong for Mercedes and Hamilton, but this season that does not count for much. If it is Hamilton first and Verstappen second in Jeddah, then Hamilton will need to finish ahead of Verstappen in Abu Dhabi.
It is possible that he takes a lightsto-flag victory from pole but, as alluded to above, another engine penalty may be necessary, and he could need to overtake Verstappen on track. This would be less than ideal as the Abu Dhabi circuit is notoriously difficult for overtaking.
Fernando Alonso suffered badly in 2010, his Ferrari stuck behind the slower Renault of Vitaly Petrov for 37 laps as he finished seventh when fourth would have denied Sebastian Vettel his first world championship. Hamilton could also get stuck behind other drivers, handing an advantage to Verstappen.
On the other hand, it could be
Verstappen who suffers this fate if he trails Hamilton on track. The Yas Marina circuit has been modified since last year, with the hideous chicane towards the end of the second straight removed. The hairpin at the end of the first sector could be the new and best place to overtake.
The stewards/fia
A lot has been made of Mercedes’ advantage in Brazil coming from their engine, but Red Bull have been making a lot of noise about the W12’s rear wing. Their complaints led to new tests being introduced by the FIA after qualifying in Qatar. Horner had made comments of unusual “score marks” and insinuations of an unfair advantage. Wolff said that Red Bull were seeing “ghosts”.
Mercedes, as they would do, have hit back, saying everything is above board and that they will protest about Red Bull’s car, too. It is all unseemly but predictable, given what is at stake and the heightened tensions throughout the year. But it is nothing new. Just as the chances of an on-track collision are increasing, so is the possibility of the championship being decided in the courts.
Given the furore over Verstappen’s lack of penalty for his defensive move in Brazil, the championship could yet be determined, not in the courts but in the stewards’ room after the race.
Both of these would leave a sour taste in the mouth.