Leicester’s route to upsetting the odds By Charlie Morgan
Set-piece firepower
In the aftermath of their win over England in March, Ireland revealed that referee Mathieu Raynal had been in touch.
Apparently, the Frenchman said he should not have penalised their scrummaging as much. Yet that will do nothing to dampen Ellis Genge’s relish for another face-off against Leinster’s Tadhg Furlong today.
Dan Cole, who turns 35 on Monday, appears to be getting better and better. Julian Montoya is tenacious and strong, too.
Leicester have forced 19 scrum penalties in five matches in this Champions Cup campaign, more than any other side despite having a pool game cancelled.
They are also top of the Premiership tree, with 57 across the season to date.
Set-piece aggression is guaranteed to underpin their approach. Raynal, in charge at Welford Road today, will have more pivotal decisions to make – which could determine how this one plays out.
Block the runners
One feature of Saracens’ win at Leinster in 2020 was a tweaked defensive formation (below). Alex Goode, who wore the No10 jersey that day, did not stand at fly-half for Leinster set-pieces.
Instead, he dropped to full-back. Elliot Daly occupied the outsidecentre channel, with Duncan Taylor and Brad Barritt shifting in one spot. Leinster’s attack generates quick ball by flooding runners towards the opposition fly-half channel. Like Saracens, Leicester could disrupt this by deploying their tough centres inside and moving George Ford wider. Richard Wigglesworth, the Saracens scrum-half that day and now a Leicester player-coach, had a front-row seat in Dublin in 2020. He would do well to adopt the Sarries template.
Killer instinct
Leicester are averaging 67 rucks in possession per match this season and have not once hit three figures in a game. Leinster, by contrast, have averaged 103 across the United Rugby Championship and Europe. They have amassed a century of rucks in 14 of their 22 outings.
Barring a drastic shift in approach, Tigers will need to score points with defensive pressure or early in possession. They have the capacity to do both.
Their driving maul is effective and their set-piece strike moves have become sharper.
At their best this season, Leicester have been ruthless in transition situations on the back of turnovers as well. They registered seven tries from just 55 rucks against Northampton last October.
Last Saturday against Bristol, they needed 67 rucks to plunder eight tries.
The victory at Clermont in the previous round featured five from 54 and was arguably their most polished performance.
Kick pressure
Leicester trust their defence and are comfortable without the ball, which is reflected in their tendency to kick in-field. Despite averaging 34 kicks per match in the Premiership, they have faced an average of only 12.5 line-outs per match. Only Exeter (12.3) and Saracens (12) have defended fewer of those set-pieces. George Ford will attempt to tease the Leinster back three around the field and the hosts may aim short box-kicks over the top of rucks. Freddie Steward and Hugo Keenan are sure to renew the aerial duel that the latter edged when Ireland overturned England at Twickenham two months ago. Leicester are fiercely focused when it comes to tactical discipline, underlining the diligence of Steve Borthwick. Unless they aim to hurl an almighty curve-ball, kick pressure will be a primary weapon.