Is All Blacks’ decline terminal or a blip?
New Zealand go in search of their missing mojo against an Ireland side harbouring high hopes of World Cup success
Last year proved to be historic for the All Blacks – but not in a good way. Three Test defeats was their worst run of form since 2009.
Most nations would consider 12 Test wins out of 15 in a year to be a triumph, but the All Blacks operate to different standards.
As they prepare to meet an Ireland side who harbour genuine World Cup ambitions, with head coach Ian Foster (below), his assistants and starting centres David Havili and Jack Goodhue all out with Covid, New Zealand’s mood threatens to be as dark as their shirts.
So, is the decline terminal? Foster, speaking after the 40-25 defeat by a blossoming France side last November, pointed out that Australia and South Africa suffered multiple defeats in 2021. He also stressed that New Zealand had spent a draining 12 weeks on tour before that trip to Paris.
And yet there has always been a slight sense of uncertainty about the All Blacks under Foster. They may be scoring more tries in this World Cup cycle than the last – 5.86 per game to 5.13, albeit slightly skewed by beating Tonga 102-0 and scoring 57 and then 60 points in back-to-back Tests against Fiji– but the All Blacks’ carries, line breaks and offloads are all down.
They have lost five out of 21 Tests since Foster succeeded Steve Hansen at the end of 2019. During the previous World Cup cycle – excluding the competition itself – they lost six out of 47. Going back to 2011-15, again excluding the World Cup, it was three out of 47. These numbers help explain why doubts are creeping in.
The continued success of Scott Robertson at the Crusaders has not helped Foster’s cause. When Foster was appointed, Robertson had already revived the Crusaders and won three Super Rugby titles on the trot, unearthing a number of future All Blacks in Richie Mo’unga, Goodhue and Havili. Since then, the Crusaders have won two Super Rugby Aotearoa titles and a Super Rugby Pacific title this year, too.
Robertson’s lack of Test coaching experience was cited as a factor behind him missing out to Foster in 2019, but his continued success has left New Zealand Rugby facing a conundrum of how to keep your most successful domestic coach in the country while someone else has the top job.
“I will coach in France one day,” Robertson said in 2018 after the Crusaders’ first title. Five more trophies later, and that clamour for him to coach the All Blacks has only grown louder. NZR renewed Foster’s deal in 2021 through to the World Cup, while Robertson is on a contract with the Crusaders until 2024, which includes a break clause for him to leave if he is overlooked for the All Blacks after France 2023.
If NZR does not appoint Robertson next year, there will be lucrative offers from all over the world.
So, what can Foster do in the interim? One gripe last autumn was that in the games against Ireland and France, the All Blacks started sluggishly. James Lowe’s try (after Codie Taylor’s yellow card) gave Ireland the early lead in Dublin, while scores from Peato Mauvaka and Romain Ntamack put France ahead 14-6 after 13 minutes in Paris.
It was not until the third quarter that New Zealand started to put pressure on France, scoring three tries in 13 minutes when the All Blacks were “confrontational and direct”, as Foster put it.
Ripping into Ireland from the off will have been a focal point of New Zealand’s preparations ahead of the first Test at Eden Park today.
Another point of concern last year was that against South Africa, Ireland and France, the All Blacks were second best physically. Whereas New Zealand won five turnovers in their thrashing of Wales in Cardiff, they could manage only two apiece against Ireland and France, crushed by physically quick ruck speed ahead of tries for Caelan Doris and Ntamack, in particular.
All of the messages out of the All Blacks camp this summer have been that the physical aspect of their game is about to go up a few gears, and how they fare against Ireland will be a good gauge to see if progress has been made.
“We know we’ve got the skill, we know we’ve got the power, but our physicality is going to have to go up a couple of notches this year,” assistant coach John Plumtree said last month. Captain Sam Cane said his side would focus on “dominating collisions and winning small inches.” The selection of Pita Gus Sowakula, the powerful uncapped Chiefs No8, appears to have been made with that in mind. But given the Covid disruption and the fact that the All Blacks have not played since November, today is Ireland’s best opportunity to pick up a first Test win in New Zealand, particularly given they have won three of the past five meetings. But if history has taught us anything, it is to never write off the All Blacks.