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Will fashion ever be in fashion again?
Innovation is the key, says Lisa Armstrong
On Friday 24 April, as figures are released that show fashion to be the hardest hit sector in the worst ever decline in UK sales – with clothing down 35 per cent – I’m on the phone to retail guru Mary Portas asking what hope she has for the industry’s survival. ‘I’m excited,’ she says in that heady voice. ‘What’s going to get us through this is creativity, disruption and guts.’
She’s not a fool. She acknowledges that there will be many losses in the coming months. Some of those tumbling over the edge will be household names, and that’s deeply unsettling because of all the jobs lost, but also because they’re part of our national identity. We saw some behemoths run into brick walls before Britain went into lockdown – Laura Ashley,
Debenhams. Burberry announced its sales would drop by up to 80 per cent in the final weeks of March. M&S, anchor of many a British high street, with more than 80,000 staff, cancelled its shareholder dividend and delayed £100 million of future clothing orders to prop up its cash flow. Neiman Marcus, the 43-strong US department-store chain, which also owns the historic Bergdorf Goodman on
Fifth Avenue, was struggling; it has since filed for bankruptcy. Countless labels have, in effect, been on sale since late November.
These are the headline cases. When CEOS confide that they’re 40 per cent down on the year, that’s a relatively good scenario. The British Fashion Council predicts that 35 to 50 per cent of British designer labels will be wiped out. The tiny ones with few employees and low debt may rise again. But what of the rest? Will we miss them? Privately, many see what’s happening as an acceleration of the inevitable. ‘Were some of those venerated department stores complacent and outdated?’ asks Portas. ‘Absolutely.’
If you’re wondering why 10 weeks of reduced – albeit dramatically – economic activity could have had such a catastrophic effect on such a rich industry, it’s because fashion is a game of smoke and mirrors, where image is everything but financial foundations can be shaky. The entire model since the 1990s has been predicated on debt, opening more shops, increasing product flow at greater speed, and communicating all this via shows many labels couldn’t afford. No wonder small, luxury independents such as Melissa Morris’s Métier, which produces Hermès-quality leather goods, have quietly relished the pause. ‘The drive towards constant newness was led by large brands with deep pockets,’ says Morris. ‘That doesn’t work for most of us. Producing less but making it better will benefit everyone.’
At the beginning of lockdown, comparisons with the Second World War abounded; no other event has cast a bigger shadow on the collective memory. But those comparisons can be misleading, particularly when it comes to what happens next. After the war, there was an enormous surge of pent-up demand for luxury, colour, fashion – consumers had been starved of anything not strictly necessary. By contrast, many of us have realised during lockdown just what a surfeit we have. Along with articles about colouring and cutting your own hair, guides to clearing out your wardrobe have been sure-fire hits. We’ve known we have too much stuff since the publication of Marie Kondo’s first book in 2011. Just as we’ve known about fashion’s toxic footprint. The industry has, with varying degrees of conviction and efficacy, been trying to clean up its act. ‘Now it will become non-negotiable,’ says Dana Thomas, author of Fashionopolis, about the industry’s ethics. ‘We’ve seen, in a relatively short time, how cutting down carbon emissions dramatically improves our air quality. That’s incredibly motivating.’
The big question is whether the chains will shift production out of China. In part that depends on which way consumer sentiment swings in the next 12 months. Will resentment towards the Chinese government trump our desire to buy as cheaply as possible? Inditex, which owns Zara and Massimo Dutti inter alia, has its own tightly controlled factories in its native Spain as well as using factories abroad, and was able to respond almost immediately to changing consumer patterns. This might provide a blueprint for others.
‘We’ve seen a lot of naming and shaming of brands that were quick to cancel orders with Bangladesh as soon as the crisis was apparent, leaving workers literally starving,’ says Thomas. ‘Customers will have less money and need better reasons to buy when this is over. They’ll want products that make them feel they’re doing good. CEOS are seeing that transparency and decent behaviour are the way to survive.’
Wishful thinking? Maybe not. In the past couple of months, labels from Brooks Brothers and Burberry to Anya Hindmarch and Philip Treacy have pivoted from designing luxury products to making PPE. ‘Customers will remember who did the right thing,’ says Portas.
One brand that went from niche to a $1.4 billion valuation in two years by doing ‘the right thing’ is Allbirds. Not even its cofounder, New Zealander Tim Brown, would claim its wool trainers conform to normal status conventions, but the fact that they’re 98 per cent biodegradable – a concept that seemed outlandish until recently – has propelled them into the big league. ‘It has become especially clear during the crisis that consumers are more concerned than ever with the ethical impact of the products they buy,’ he tells me. ‘They want to support brands that help local communities and use business as a force for good.’ In future, Allbirds will label all of its products with their carbon footprint. ‘Our hope is that other brands follow and that carbon labels become as ubiquitous as nutritional labels on food.’
You’d expect an eco-brand to say something along these lines. But more informative labelling and products that have a positive impact on others, not just the end purchaser, seem an increasingly plausible outcome. Even Moda Operandi, a fashion website aimed at big spenders (its co-founder Lauren Santo Domingo is a glamorous socialite whose extensive wardrobe and jet-setting lifestyle have been a key tool for reeling in customers), is finding that caring messaging works. ‘We’ve had a big positive response to our Shop for a Cause initiatives [donating a percentage of proceeds]. Not just Covid-related,’ says senior manager of fashion communications Hilary Mccanse, but ‘the one we launched in January for Australian bushfires.’
‘Finding new ways to communicate with your custom
Fashion is smoke and mirrors… Financial foundations can be shaky
ers will be crucial,’ says Jess Christie, chief brand officer of Matchesfashion, which finds itself focusing on words like ‘community’ and ‘family’. Even before Covid, it was moving away from collaborations with influencers towards ‘people we find interesting – women with something to say that isn’t just about the dress they’re wearing, providing helpful information that puts fashion in a wider context’. One campaign message during the crisis was ‘less is more’. The retailer as moderator and educator?
Perhaps. Look at the free tutorials numerous brands have been providing online, the meditation, the music and the book clubs. If data was the old Holy Grail, community is the new god. ‘Our levels of engagement have never been higher,’ says Monica Vinader, founder of the eponymous jewellery line with stores in London, Hong Kong and Ne w York . ‘Our live chats, where we offer styling tips, have been a huge hit across generations. Lockd ownme ans the over-70s have becom ecomfor table with video conferencing.’
Sales are down as you’d expect, though jewellery, a thoughtful gift and highly visible on Zoom, has held up relatively well – with no restaurants or travel expenditure, some feel more confident about spending on clothes and accessories. And dressing up for virtual parties just proves what a mood-raiser fashion can be. But as Vinader says, ‘Increasingly, brands’ relationship with customers won’t just be transactional. A lot of our loyal customers have enjoyed being in touch with our sales associates, without the pressure of having to buy.’ Vinader sees that more nuanced relationship continuing.
Can this lofty approach feed through to the mass market, where low prices are possible because of ruthlessly squeezed margins? ‘I’m not saying everyone will prioritise good practice,’ says Portas. ‘But ultimately fashion will have to stand for something more than just another throwaway dress. That means emphasising craft and creativity more than ever. Or maybe, instead of producing a ton of stuff and manically trying to shift it, more labels will wait for orders before producing them, which will reduce waste and radically improve their cash flows.’
Watch brands flip their business model. Kitri plans to make to order in future (Misha Nonoo already does this). Instead of producing big batches of an item, then discounting to get rid, it will wait for a cluster of paid-for orders. Customers may have to wait three weeks instead of 90 minutes, but the hope is that post-lockdown we’ll be more attuned to slow fashion. For the brands addicted to piling it high, there are the fledgling rental sites where they’ll be able to offload stock they haven’t been able to sell. So bumper times for renters. We may be feeling poorer, but amid our current germophobia will we want pre-worn pieces?
One thing’s certain, mass-market brands fac eavas tly changed high street. ‘Th ewinn ers won’t be those with 4,00 0stor es globally,’ says Thomas, ‘but ones with responsive websites and carefully chosen bricks and mortar.’
As for what those stores will look like: in other countries, there are experiments with drivethrough customer collection, though that can only work at out-oftown sites; added attractions such as crèches; and beauty halls with hand sanitisers on every counter and no testers. Everyone agrees footfall will be vastly reduced, not least because sales staff will be busy disinfecting clothes between tryons. Matchesfashion is contemplating a future in which customers at its London stores make appointments. Other boutiques talk of shorter opening hours and showing clients clothes on ipads before bringing out selected pieces in their sizes.
Even more than before, shops will be one of many platforms from which to buy; during the crisis, Monica Vinader has seen purchases on Whatsapp – where sales associates can engage in lengthy conversations with customers – really take off. No one is openly discussing closing stores, although for many that will be the reality. For companies that have always kept a tight hold on store count, shops remain the heart of the corporate body. ‘Our landlords have been incredibly supportive, waiving
rents and so on,’ says Vinader. Others concur. Amenable landlords – what next?
Making the boutique experience feel luxurious and welcoming will be a challenge. Click and collect will become a more popular option for fashion as well as household items, and at some point technology will make the slog of trying on clothes in store history.
But not yet. On a conference call to the AR (augmented reality) team at a wellknown tech company in California one afternoon, I expect to hear conclusive evidence that the end is nigh for shops. AR is having a big impact on the way we buy household goods and certain accessories. Warby Parker, the online glasses brand, has found that it makes customers 3.7 times more likely to buy, and other brands report that it has slashed returns rates.
Most of us already have the technology on our phones to be able to ‘place’ virtual items in the context of our homes, using software like Apple’s AR Quick Look (if you want to try this, go to cambridgesatchel.com, choose the Sophie bag and click on the icon in the corner). But while AR works well for a sofa or a bag, we’re some way from software that lets us try on clothing virtually and see how the fabric moves. Once it arrives, probably in the next five years, it will be a game changer.
As for shows – the apex of the fashion pyramid – technology is already stepping up. June’s menswear shows in London will happen in a virtual space. No one anticipates the fashion capitals staging the September shows. ‘I don’t think there’s any appetite for that kind of excess right now, let alone the budgets,’ says Thomas.
Natalie Kingham, buying director at Matchesfashion, has spent lockdown digitally visiting showrooms to view next season’s collections. ‘It takes much longer in some ways because a retailer our size might have nine or 10 buyers across accessories and clothes on a single brand’s appointment, but it’s doable.’
‘I’ve always worked remotely,’ says Vinader, ‘so I’m used to dialling in to meetings. But now we’re all dialling in. It works – but that’s because we already know each other so well. We’re not going to dispense with a central office any time soon, but we’ve all seen how much time we can save. That will affect what we wear – there’ll be more blurring of boundaries and functions, because there’s more blurring of work-life boundaries. Those who didn’t do it before have realised WFH can be really intense; 4pm might become the new 6pm.’
Her theory is borne out on my Zoom call with the Matchesfashion team, who are simultaneously working on laptops and soaking up spring sun in their gardens and kitchens. They’re stylish as ever (Kingham’s wearing an old Isabel Marant blouse), but in past-season favourites and flats, rather than exclusively new items.
There are lots of spectacles too, an accessory I’m seeing more of. They’re less tiring than contact lenses for eyes subjected to more screen time. Expect to see a boom in glasses specifications, as they offer to protect against blue light, for example.
Back in January, I was visiting my sister in New Zealand, which was ahead of many countries in recognising the risks of Covid. We saw one store window filled with antipollution masks from Kiwi designer Karen Walker. ‘Seems a bit over the top,’ we scoffed. When we walked past six hours later, they’d sold out.
Masks, gloves – there will be new opportunities for designers here. And if masks do become the new norm, what does that mean for lipstick? Will we gravitate towards more eye make-up and hair accessories? Will skincare continue to be the obsession it has become during lockdown, and will the non-toxic market (up 11 per cent while the beauty market as a whole is down 14 per cent) keep growing?
The pandemic and lockdowns can’t help but leave their imprint on fashion. ‘Design teams have been working at home for weeks,’ says Kingham. That’s bound to affect their world view. Although Kingham misses the excitement of in-person contact, like almost everyone in the industry, she agrees the show schedule had become bloated. ‘There has been too much of everything. I think less stuff will be produced and if we can organise it collectively, there will be a return to sales being held at the end of the season rather than the start.’
Like Portas, Kingham anticipates a surge in creativity. On a pragmatic note, the extended return period – from 28 to 60 days – that most e-tailers now offer to encourage purchases during lockdown will probably have to become the standard.
‘The big question is, what will be the post-covid equivalent of Dior’s 1947 New Look?’ she asks. ‘Traditionally we see dramatic change after a period of trauma. I can’t see a mass take-up of body-con or lots of naked flesh in the immediate future. I think minimalism, or an artisanal kaftan with beautiful jewellery and flat shoes, are more like it.’
That sounds appealing to me, although in all likelihood, the next big disruption is still being hatched. Fashion has a knack of reinventing itself whatever the crisis. It’s the world’s great unnecessary necessity.