Top tip? Book last minute and keep your fingers crossed

With regular changes to quarantine rules, it’s hard to plan your travels at the moment. Nick Trend gazes into his crystal ball

How will the rest of 2020 play out from a traveller’s point of view? The news is changing so fast that it’s harder to make predictions, but it helps to step back and try to get perspective on the situation.

We have to be realistic, obviously. We can’t wish away what is happening. And we can’t be certain that developments – whether unexpected or, like an effective vaccine, ardently hoped for – won’t make a dramatic difference. We at Telegraph Travel, and many throughout the industry, believe the introduction of widespread testing at airports will reduce quarantine times, unlock many other problems and increase the number of destinations we can visit. We continue to campaign vigorously for this (see details and daily updates at telegraph. co.uk/test4travel) and, given the Prime Minister’s recent “moonshot” conversion to mass testing, the Government may be persuaded.

In the meantime, remember the positives. Overall, tourism has been hugely down but many friends and colleagues have travelled abroad this summer: to Italy, Greece, Turkey and Portugal – some, earlier in the summer, to Spain and France. A few have suffered unexpected quarantine on their return, others have had to cancel or change dates. But at least there are possibilities out there for those who can risk changes to quarantine rules.

The sudden surge in cases in Britain, and several European countries, is a growing shadow, however. In the UK we have now breached the 20 per 100,000 infection rate that our own Government uses as the key measure to decide which countries are safe to visit. It has yet to address the implications of this, but the power to decide may well be taken out of its hands as more countries impose quarantine restrictions on arrivals from Britain.

So what can we expect in the next few weeks? Short of the reintroduction of blanket restrictions on overseas travel, which is possible, these are my best guesses. The wise traveller will monitor the situation and book at the last minute, or with an airline or operator which allows penalty-free cancellations or postponements.

What are the prospects for half-term? Options are shrinking. Crete – one of the best places for late October sun – was added to the Government’s red list on Wednesday. Despite the change in policy to distinguish between islands rather than just countries, it doesn’t look as though the Canaries will get the green light. Turkey is looking like the safest bet for last-gasp sunshine.

What about Christmas?

We can forget about the usual late December rush when families reunite. Australia, New Zealand, the US and Canada seem highly unlikely to lift their stringent entry restrictions and quarantine requirements for returning citizens. The “rule of six” in this country also looks likely to scupper most family reunions. If you want to get away from home, book that cottage smartish.

And winter sun?

This is going to be a stop-go scenario at best. The Canaries may be out, but the smaller Caribbean islands are controlling Covid-19 well and Barbados, Antigua and Grenada are still on the Foreign Office’s green list. Keep your fingers crossed and grab your chance – if it’s still there – from November onwards.

Will there be a January rush? Unlikely. January will be defined by the usual surge of deals trying to get families to commit to a summer break. But it will be a tricky sell and must include free cancellation. People may bag an option but not commit financially. In this new era, they won’t want to part with money until the very last moment.