Heat pumps unmask the folly of ‘net zero’

Inadequate radiators, high costs and a lack of installers is undermining the Government’s battle to get us to go green, writes Tom Haynes

They were intended to be the silver bullet to make households meet the Government’s ambitious “net zero” plan to offset carbon emissions. But flaws with heat pumps have become very apparent and the Government’s aim of installing 600,000 a year by 2028 is rapidly unravelling.

Demand for the pumps is stagnating: there is a shortage of engineers trained to install and maintain them, while households that already have them face higher bills than if they had stuck with gas boilers.

The 2028 deadline is looming. Nearly nine out of 10 homes still use gas boilers and more than 1,600 heat pumps need to be installed every day to hit the target. So what has gone wrong?

SMALL RADIATORS

Under the Government’s heat pump plan, published in October last year, households will swap “dirty” technology such as gas boilers for low-carbon alternatives such as heat pumps or hydrogen boilers, although a decision on the role of the latter is not due until 2026.

Heat pumps come in two forms: air source and ground source. The heat from the pump flows directly into household radiators or underfloor heating. However, therein lies the first problem: heat pumps are simply not suited to the radiators already installed in many homes.

A study by the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy published in May found that most radiators were too small to work with the pumps, so most households would need thousands of pounds’ worth of upgrades to accommodate them.

One homeowner was quoted nearly £30,000 to install a heat pump and replace all his radiators. Some 99pc of homes do not have radiators large enough to heat a room on the coldest winter’s day using a low-temperature heat pump, the most common model.

Householders who hope to upgrade their radiators could expect to pay almost £ 3,000 for a fivebedroom house, not including the cost of labour.

HIGH PRICES

Until 2025 homeowners who opt to install a heat pump will receive a £5,000 grant as part of the Boiler Upgrade Scheme. But the upfront cost is understood to be much higher.

Last year Boris Johnson told a parliamentary committee: “Let’s be frank, these things cost about 10 grand a pop. This is a lot of money for ordinary people. There are some big bets we may need to place on hydrogen, but also on heat pumps.” Only £450m in funding has been earmarked for the scheme, which means just 90,000 homes will benefit from it.

It is hoped that heat pumps will become cheaper as more British manufacturers embrace the technology. The pumps are also expected to become more efficient in future. This prompts the question: why install a heat pump now?

This might explain consumers’ waning enthusiasm. According to research by the law firm Shakespeare Martineau, nearly two in five people would rather replace a broken gas boiler like- for- like, while just 12pc would opt for a heat pump.

Earlier this year Jim Woodley, from south London, replaced his boiler with another, fearing it was “too early” to switch to heat pumps. “Gas boilers still have a lot of life in them,” he said. “I have a feeling that heat pumps will go the way of Betamax video.”

There is also no guarantee that the price of heat pumps will fall as much as the Government expects. In France, where 1.1 million pumps were sold last year – compared with 50,000 in Britain – installations still cost around £11,000.

Mike Foster of the Energy Utilities Alliance trade body said it was “wishful thinking” to suggest prices here would fall. “Heat pumps are a globally traded product so why would they be cheaper in Britain than France? Once you debunk this myth, Britain’s whole heat and buildings strategy falls apart.”

WHO WILL INSTALL THEM? Even if you do want a heat pump, the vast majority of heating engineers do not hold the necessary qualification to install them. Last month a report by the boiler maker Baxi Heating found that only 2,000 installers in the country were accredited to work with heat pumps, compared with the estimated 30,000 needed to meet the Government’s target.

To speed things along, the Government has backed plans to penalise manufacturers that refuse to sell heat pumps as part of a so- called “market mechanism” to encourage businesses to get on board. No decision has yet been made on specific penalties, but plans to “kick-start” the market could take effect in the next two years.

Mr Foster said a penalty system “smacks of Soviet- style planning”, forcing consumers to pay for a product they did not want and that might not be suitable for their home.

HIGH RUNNING COSTS

The green technology is also more expensive to run than its “dirty” alternative, according to the Government’s own advisers. A report by the Climate Change Committee said heat pump running costs were 10pc higher than those of a gas boiler – equal to £100 more a year – even at current record high gas prices.

The CCC urged the Government to remove the green levy from electricity bills if it wanted to make heat pumps more affordable to run.

The Government’s heat pump push has been especially frustrating for rural homeowners. Howard Illingworth of the trade association Liquid Gas UK said the “one size fits all” approach to phasing out gas boilers did not take into account the complexity of heating rural properties, which are typically older and less energy efficient, making them expensive to reequip with a heat pump.

He said: “It can cost up to £32,000 to install a heat pump in a rural home and make the required infrastructure changes.”

As the Tory leadership race hots up, it is unclear whether Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss will readdress the heat pump question. Mr Sunak provided financial support for net zero objectives while chancellor, although he has not publicly backed the policy. Ms Truss has also been largely quiet on green issues.

For now, the drive to make heat pumps the future of heating our homes continues apace. A government spokesman emphasised the £ 5,000 installation grant and the elimination of VAT on pumps.