Assad could stay in power as Putin targets Isil in Syria

VLADIMIR PUTIN is preparing to attack Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in Syria amid growing signs that Western leaders may support a Russian plan to allow Bashar al-Assad to remain in power in the country.

Russia has sent dozens of fighter jets and helicopter gunships to Syria as it steps up support for President Assad in the fight against Isil jihadists.

Mr Putin is understood to have told America that he is prepared to authorise unilateral Russian air strikes on Isil targets if the US does not back his plans to take on the jihadists while allowing Mr Assad to remain in power.

There has been mounting evidence that Western leaders are now softening their opposition to the prospect of Mr Assad remaining in power.

Angela Merkel, the German chancel-

‘The process could possibly be without Assad, or the transitional process could be with him’

lor, said yesterday: “We have to speak with many actors. This includes Assad, but others as well.

“Not only with the United States of America, Russia, but with important regional partners, Iran, and Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia.”

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, who has been a fierce critic of Mr Assad, suggested for the first time that the Syrian president could have a role to play in a future political transition.

“The process could possibly be without Assad, or the transitional process could be with him,” he said.

Philip Hammond, the Foreign Secretary, and John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, have suggested that Mr Assad must step down but that there could be a transitional period during which he remains in power.

It came as the White House said that Barack Obama will hold talks with Mr Putin next week at the United Nations General Assembly in what will be their first meeting for more than a year.

ONLY a few months ago, Bashar al-Assad was staring into a metaphorical abyss while triumphant rebels advanced across Syria.

Less than 20 per cent of the country remained within the Syrian leader’s grasp and his downfall seemed imminent.

But yesterday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, accepted that Assad will inevitably be part of Syria’s “transition”, echoing a similar message from Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, who bluntly declared that the West would have to negotiate with the dictator.

What changed? The answer, in simple terms, is that Russia has intervened to save him. By dispatching troops to the Syrian city of Latakia, supported by jet fighters and helicopter gunships, Vladimir Putin has effectively guaranteed that Assad will not be overthrown.

Mr Putin claims to want to join America’s campaign against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil), but the immediate effect of his deployment is to tip the balance of the war in Assad’s favour.

This pattern of events is familiar. In the summer of 2012, Assad’s army was close to disintegration, leaving him helpless in the face of a rebel offensive. At that critical moment, Iran came to his rescue by sending thousands of Hizbollah fighters to bolster his forces.

The lesson is clear: every time Assad’s back is against the wall, either Russia or Iran will save him. If the West lacks the stomach to intervene in Syria, Russia and Iran have no such restraint.

This does not mean Assad will restore his dominance over the wasteland that his country has become. Even with outside help, he is not seriously attempting to reconquer the 80 per cent of Syria that has slipped from his grasp; the best he can do is cling to the other 20 per cent.

His dependence on Russia and Iran also means he must endure the humiliation of being a leader kept in place by foreigners regardless of his own people. But the military guarantee which Assad enjoys has forced Western powers to adjust their policies. Until late 2012, they felt confident enough to organise “Friends of Syria” conferences, drawing together America, Europe and the Arab League, while pointedly excluding Russia, Iran and Assad. The unspoken assumption was his regime could fall at any time.

Mrs Merkel’s words amount to an admission that this policy is no longer realistic. By demonstrating his willingness to reduce his country to ashes if that is the price of calling himself “President of Syria”, Assad has forced the West to deal with him. By rescuing Assad whenever he faces disaster, Russia and Iran have given themselves more influence over events than any other outside players.

There is a formula for a settlement in Syria: Assad would go into exile, allowing the birth of a united front against everyone’s common enemy, Isil. But Russia and Iran have ensured nothing can happen without them.