Patience with North Korea is running out
The international community has issued what is now an almost ritualistic denunciation of the latest North Korean missile test. But this is water off a duck’s back to the leadership in Pyongyang. Over the years, the UN has condemned the regime that runs the world’s most insular nation but that has not made the slightest difference to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. It is apparent that being repeatedly told it has breached non-proliferation treaties, which it does not recognise, is a pointless exercise. Unless North Korea is to pay a penalty for pursuing this dangerous course of action – posturing and sabre-rattling though it may be – it is hard to see where it will stop.
But what sort of penalty can be imposed that would make any difference? Iran’s nuclear programme triggered international sanctions that seriously impaired its ability to sell its oil, hurt its economy and forced Tehran to negotiate. But no such pressure can be applied on North Korea other than by its only friend and regional patron, China. The last thing Beijing wants is for its dysfunctional neighbour to cause political and military instability – even war – in its backyard.
China undoubtedly has the wherewithal to bring Kim Jong-un and his cronies to heel. It could, for instance, impose an economic embargo and cut off the aid it supplies, although the consequences would almost certainly be a refugee crisis on its border. There are also political and diplomatic advantages to Beijing in having North Korea as a regional buffer, as it has been since the war in the peninsula ended in 1953.
Then again, the Chinese cannot afford to risk Pyongyang doing something so reckless it invites a military response from Japan or the US. North Korea recently claimed to have detonated a hydrogen bomb, and is believed to possess up to 20 nuclear weapons. The latest test indicates it has developed the capability to deliver a long-range missile possibly as far as America and certainly over Japan. It is also working on submarinelaunched weapons, which would allow North Korea to hit any target in the world.
The Chinese may judge that the lunacy in Pyongyang will come to an end eventually, though since Kim Jong-un is a young man this seems unlikely just yet. But there comes a point when a policy of wait-and-see containment no longer makes sense. We are close to reaching it.