Corbyn faces a Labour local election disaster, polls expert warns

LABOUR is on course to suffer its worst result in opposition for 34 years at the local elections, one of Britain’s most respected polling experts has warned.

The party will lose 170 councillors and control of a string of councils in the South East if people vote as the polls suggest, according to analysis by Prof John Curtice for The Telegraph.

Labour moderates warned the result would be a “tragedy” and that the party leadership would have to “take some responsibility” for the losses.

Party rebels are preparing to use the council defeats to call into question Jeremy Corbyn’s suitability for leadership by saying it proves his political “experiment” is not working.

It comes with Mr Corbyn facing his biggest electoral test since taking over the leadership last September when the country goes to the polls on May 5.

As well as elections for the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly, many councillors in England are seeking re-election.

The contests are seen as a vital litmus test for Mr Corbyn’s popularity because winning back voters in England is crucial to Labour beating the Tories in the 2020 general election.

Analysis by Prof Curtice, who teaches politics at Strathclyde University and is president of the British Polling Council, reveals the party is heading for a historic council defeat.

Taking Labour’s two-point trail behind the Tories in current polls into account, the party is likely to lose 170 councillors, according to Prof Curtice.

Even if the party draws level with the Tories in national polling they are expected to lose 120 councillors, while dropping four points behind would see a loss of 220 Labour councillors.

Losing 170 seats would be worse than any Labour performances in opposition since 1982, when the party lost 225 seats. Labour could also lose control of key councils including Cannock Chase, Crawley, Redditch and Southampton.

Prof Curtice said that Mr Corbyn’s “misfortune” is that the council seats up for election this year were last contested in 2012, when Labour was enjoying a surge in support after George Osborne’s “omnishambles” Budget.

He added: “Given that Labour are currently still behind in the polls, albeit less than a few weeks ago, it seems almost inevitable that Labour will lose council seats on May 5. “Such an out- come will confirm that as yet at least, Mr Corbyn has yet to find a formula that makes Labour look as though it could return to power.”

Discussing the possible 170-seat loss, Kevan Jones, the former shadow defence minister, said it would raise questions for the leadership. “This would be very grim news for the Labour Party and a tragedy for hundreds of hard working Labour councillors whose fate the national leadership would have to take some responsibility for,” he said.